EMERGING MARKETS: SARB Expected to Initiate Policy Easing Next Week
Sep-13 15:18
- South Africa (Thur) - The SARB is expected to deliver the first rate cut of the cycle, just a day after the release of local inflation data and the Fed's monetary policy decision. A cut in the US would make it easier for South African policymakers to follow suit, but domestic inflation dropping close to the +4.5% Y/Y target mid-point and moderating inflation expectations could also be cited to support looser policy.
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US TSYS: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $678 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
Aug-14 15:15
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $678 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
STIR: ECB Pricing Stabilises Around 70bp Of '24 Cuts
Aug-14 14:59
EUR STIR markets move away from hawkish session extremes that followed the U.S. CPI data, with a pullback from highs in equity futures and fresh buying in core global FI markets noted.
- Euribor futures are -1.5 to +1.0 last, while ECB-dated OIS is roughly in line with pre-U.S. CPI levels, showing just under 25bp of cuts for next month’s meeting and a cumulative ~70bp of cuts through year end.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 3.419 | -24.5 |
Oct-24 | 3.261 | -40.3 |
Dec-24 | 2.961 | -70.3 |
Jan-25 | 2.769 | -89.5 |
Mar-25 | 2.545 | -111.9 |
Apr-25 | 2.420 | -124.4 |
Jun-25 | 2.260 | -140.4 |
Jul-25 | 2.189 | -147.6 |
US: Harris Looks For Bump In Arizona And Teamsters Endorsement
Aug-14 14:49
Vice President Kamala Harris may get a turnout boost in the Sun Belt after an abortion measure was added to the Arizona ballot. A similar measure is also on the ballot in Nevada, where Trump appears to hold his strongest swing-state lead.
- Axios notes: “The abortion rights side has won every time it's been on the ballot since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.”
- President Biden’s withdrawal appears to have cratered support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and reduced the prevalence of the so-called ‘double haters’ who characterised much of the Biden-Trump period. Kennedy, who was polling as high as 22% before Biden dropped out, now appears headed for a low single-digit vote share.
- Split Ticket notes: “The biggest factor that was unique to this election cycle was a deep distaste of both candidates... Kamala Harris’ ascension seems to have completely changed this dynamic.”
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball notes, "it appears that [Harris] has pulled some Democrats back from the Kennedy column, and most polls now suggest Kennedy is hurting Trump more than Harris,” but adds, “This could actually represent a small but still hidden source of Trump growth—if one believes that RFK Jr. is still polling higher than what he’ll ultimately get in November...”
- Trump’s suggestion to Elon Musk that striking workers could be fired, may nudge Teamsters president Sean O’Brien to endorse Kamala Harris.
- O’Brien, who has so-far withheld an endorsement, said in a statement: “Firing workers for organizing, striking, and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism.”
