EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Trend Points North
Nov-18 12:01
- A bull cycle in EURHUF remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial support to watch is 406.28, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 402.44. Key resistance has been defined at 412.35, the Nov 6 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 415.92, the Dec 13 2022 high.
- The latest steep pullback in EURPLN appears corrective. However, the 50-day EMA at 4.3186 today, has again been pierced. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 4.2867, the Oct 14 low. A reversal higher would reinforce the bull theme and refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 4.3758, the Nov 6 high. Clearance of this level would expose 4.3826, the Jun 14 high and a key medium-term resistance.
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RATINGS: UK, Italy Affirmed by S&P; Scope Downgrades France
Oct-18 21:02
Recapping sovereign ratings actions today:
- S&P affirms Italy's Long-Term Local Currency Debt Rating at BBB, outlook remains stable
- S&P affirms the UK's Long-Term Local Currency Debt Rating at AA, outlook remains stable
- Scope downgraded France to AA- (from AA) with a stable outlook
- S&P did not affirm/update the ratings of Greece or the Netherlands as part of their semi-annual review of the sovereigns.
US FISCAL: Budget Deficit Rises As Interest Payments Soar
Oct-18 20:27
The US's September budget balance came in very close to expectations with a $64B surplus, just the 2nd monthly surplus posted in the 2024 fiscal year just ended (Monthly Treasury Statement here - PDF).
- For the fiscal year as a whole (Oct-Sep), the nominal deficit came in at $1.83T, equating to 6.4% of GDP - that's up from $1.70T in FY 2023 (6.2% of GDP).
- For the year, revenues rose by a little under $500B but outlays grew by over $600B. Notably, interest rose 29% to $1.13T (net $882B), with the net figure 3.06% of GDP: the highest since 1996. That came as the weighted average interest rate of debt outstanding rose 35bp on the year to 3.32%, while social security payments rose by $103B on higher cost of living increases and more retirees.
- The 2025 fiscal year deficit is not expected to be much changed as a percentage of GDP, though that could depend on the November election results.
- CBO director Phillip Swagel told MNI recently America has fiscal headroom in the near-term but spending is on an unsustainable track over the long-term (link).
MNI: US SEP TREASURY BUDGET $64.3B
Oct-18 20:00
- MNI: US SEP TREASURY BUDGET $64.3B
