EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Remains Above Support

Sep-06 10:59

EURHUF is firmer today but is still trading inside a range and above the Aug 21 low of 391.93. For bears, a breach of this level is required to reinstate a bearish threat. This would open 390.06 next, the Jul 26 low. Initial resistance to watch is unchanged at 396.06, the Aug 16 high. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a bullish reversal and expose the more important resistance at 399.21, the Aug 5 high.
EURPLN has not managed to hold on to its recent gains and maintains a softer short-term tone. Initial key support has been defined at 4.2614, the Aug 16 low. Clearance of this level would expose 4.2471, the Jul 15 low. A reversal higher and a break of resistance at 4.3039, the Aug 28 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.

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Aug-07 10:55

5,000 SFRV4 96.00/96.25/96.37 broken call flys vs. 95.43/95.50 put spds, 1.25 net at 0649:25ET

Aug-07 10:46

In FX, EURUSD maintains a positive tone following recent gains and the break of key short-term resistance and bull trigger at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1012 next, 76.4% of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Apr 16 downleg. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0860, the 20-day EMA. A pullback is considered corrective.
GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday and remains in bear-mode condition. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2786 - and a breach of a trendline at 1.2777, drawn from the Apr 22 low. The clear break of the EMA and the trendline, suggests scope for an extension towards 1.2672 next, 50.0% of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle.. A break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.2824, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY remains bearish and last week’s sell-off, plus Monday’s impulsive move lower, reinforces this condition. This paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the pair is in an extreme oversold condition, and the latest recovery - a correction - is allowing this condition to unwind. Initial resistance is seen at 149.77, the Aug 2 high.

Aug-07 10:39

Treasuries have recently set fresh post-payrolls lows in a continued pushback on prior recessionary fears seen in the aftermath of a dovish report but one that had some notable caveats.
Cash yields are 3.7-5.1bp higher on the day, led by 2s.
2Y yields have met some resistance between 4.02-4.03% (a latest high of 4.030%) as they remain below the ~4.12% seen pre-payrolls.
10Y yields of 3.93% meanwhile are back at pre-payrolls levels courtesy of real yields now sitting ~6bp higher.
TYU4 has seen a session low of 113-01+ having also essentially closed the post-payrolls gap via 115-03+. It’s the latest step closer to support 112-21 (Aug 2 low). Volumes of 460k are still elevated but less so than overnight sessions for the prior two days.
Headlines and sentiment should drive today’s session until the 10Y auction. It comes after yesterday’s relatively well-received 3Y and is followed by the 30Y tomorrow.
Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (1200ET)
Fedspeak: Collins to Rhode Island (1200ET – no remarks expected)
Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction - 91282CLF6 (1300ET)
Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction (1130ET)

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