OIL: EIA Stocks Preview: US Crude Build Expected
Feb-05 13:14
EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) today.
- Crude inventories are expected to build by 1.03mbbl, gasoline to draw 0.08mbbl and distillates to draw 1.93mbbl for the week to Jan. 31, a Bloomberg survey average shows.
- US crude inventories rose more than expected last week with a drop in refinery runs and lower exports back below 4mb/d to offset lower production on the week. Imports from Canada to the US could be supported with the risk of potential tariffs last week. Cushing stocks have edged higher since the start of the year but remain well below the previous five year range.
- A Bloomberg survey shows a 0.33 percentage points fall in refinery utilisation this week. Utilisation fell more than expected by 2.4% last week to 83.5% due to cold weather and turnarounds. Gulf Coast utilization fell to 79%. Gulf Coast refinery runs may again be impacted this week amid the closure of the Houston Ship Channel due to fog late last week.
- Gasoline stocks last week increased to the highest since Feb 2024 amid an increase in imports, lower exports to offset an increase in implied demand. The four week average implied gasoline demand edged higher to hold just above the previous five year average.
- Data last week showed distillates stocks fell more than expected due to higher implied demand as both imports and exports fell on the week. Weekly diesel demand jumped to the highest since March 2022 likely due to heating oil demand amid cold weather. The four week average distillates demand surged higher to rise just above the previous five year average.
- The API data yesterday showed a crude build of 5mbbl, a Cushing build of 0.11mbbl, a gasoline build of 5.4mbbl and distillates draw of 7mbbl.
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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 6-12 January
Jan-06 13:12
MNI's Political Risk team has published its first Week Ahead of 2025, looking at the major political events scheduled over the coming seven days. Includes info on the US Congress certifying President-elect Donald Trump's election win; Canadian PM Justin Trudeau believed to be on the verge of resigning; and Italian PM Meloni hosting US President Joe Biden in his final overseas trip in office.
Full article PDF attached below:
BONDS: Away From Highs Following German CPI, Tsys Outperform Still
Jan-06 13:10
Bonds trade away from session highs after German CPI data prints above expectations.
- A reminder that regional CPI data that covered 12-13% of the German CPI weighting pointed to upside risks to the national release.
- Methodology changes and German regional holidays explain the change in release order this month (the normal ordering should resume next month, meaning greater steer from regional releases ahead of the national CPI print).
- Bund futures lose ~15 ticks on the data.
- Major futures contracts stick within previously established session ranges, bearish technical themes intact.
- German curve bear flattens on inflation data, U.S. curve bull steepens on potential watering down of Trump’s tariff preferences (threatening the bearish technical setup) and gilts find themselves in between the two, yields ~0.5bp higher on the day across the UK curve.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Jan-06 13:04
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.31% (-0.09), volume: $2.398T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.29% (-0.07), volume: $845B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.29% (-0.07), volume: $821B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
