BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: OATs Weaker, But Outperform Peers
Oct-09 18:09
European curves bear steepened Thursday.
- Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads widened modestly on a session that was only light on data and macro developments, largely in a late risk-off move late as equities weakened.
- OATs outperformed peers however after the Government announced post-cash close Wednesday that President Macron will announce a new prime minister Friday, potentially averting the need to hold snap elections.
- BoE's Mann pointed to another vote in favour of maintaining rather than cutting Bank Rate.
- The ECB's September meeting accounts broadly echoed President Lagarde's view that policy is in a good place, citing no immediate pressure to change rates.
- As noted, it was a limited session for data (amid the US gov't shutdown). The German trade surplus outperformed expectations in August.
- Both the UK and German curves bear steepened, with Gilts underperforming.
- Apart from the French PM announcement which is the most anticipated event of the day, Friday's calendar includes Italian industrial production data and an appearance by ECB's Escriva. S&P is due to rate Italy after Friday's cash close.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.8bps at 1.997%, 5-Yr is up 2.4bps at 2.295%, 10-Yr is up 2.4bps at 2.703%, and 30-Yr is up 1.5bps at 3.279%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.9bps at 4.004%, 5-Yr is up 2.7bps at 4.176%, 10-Yr is up 3.6bps at 4.745%, and 30-Yr is up 3.6bps at 5.546%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.8bps at 80.5bps / Spanish bond spread up 0.2bps at 54.1bps
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FRANCE: Macron Names Lecornu PM
Sep-09 18:07
French President Macron names Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu as Prime Minister, per multiple wires. MNI had previously flagged that Lecornu was favoured to replace Bayrou if elections were not called following the government's collapse Monday.
- EUR heads a little lower on the news.
- Earlier this week Politico noted: "Lecornu has established his credentials as a loyal Macron ally, honing a political style that chimes well that of the president — in particular his engagement with local-level politics."
- Per Bloomberg just now, "Macron tasked Lecornu with “consulting the political forces in parliament with a view to adopting a budget,” after which he would propose the formation of a new government."
- Per the AP, "A former conservative who joined Macron’s centrist movement in 2017, he has held posts on local authorities, overseas territories and during Macron’s yellow vest “great debate,” where he managed mass anger with dialogue."
EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains
Sep-09 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2
- PRICE: 0.8660 @ 17:31 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 0.8635/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent highs despite the fade into the Tuesday close. The cross has recently cleared resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1.5B Raymond James 2Pt Launched
Sep-09 17:56
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 09/09 $2.5B #Repsol E&P Capital $500M 3Y +130, $1B 5Y +160, $1Y 10Y +190
- 09/09 $2.05B *NCL Corp $1.025B each: 5.25NC2 5.875%, 8NC3 6.25%
- 09/09 $2B #Turkiye Govt International Bond 10Y 7%
- 09/09 $1.5B #Raymond James $650M 10Y +85, $850M 30Y +95
- 09/09 $1B *Korea Development Bank 5Y SOFR+64
- 09/09 $750M #Huntington Bancshares PerpNC5 6.25%
- 09/09 $650M #NBN Co 5Y +60
- 09/09 $600M UWM Holdings 5.5NC2.5
- 09/09 $500M #Met Tower 5Y +65
- 09/09 $Benchmark Stellantis 3Y +145, 3Y SOFR+169, 5Y +180
- 09/09 $Benchmark DTE Energy 3Y +57, 10Y +102
- Expected Wednesday:
- 09/10 $3B KFW 3Y SOFR+33a
- 09/10 $1B Federal Home Loan 2Y +4
- 09/09 $Benchmark IDA (International Development Association) 7Y SOFR+57a
