BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Strengthen, But Continue To Lag Peers

Feb-10 17:57

Gilts once again underperformed Bunds, within a broad curve flattening move across European FI Tuesday.

  • Long-end Gilts continued their recovery following vocal support in Monday's session by government ministers for PM Starmer, thereby alleviating near-term fiscal concerns.
  • Despite being apparently weighed down by heavy sovereign and corporate supply, Bunds continued to track global peers and outperformed Gilts.
  • Indeed, EGBs and Gilts tracked a Treasury rally in afternoon trade, with US data including retail sales and labour costs coming in softer-than-expected.
  • On the day, the German curve bull flattened, with the UK's twist flattening.
  • Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads were little changed.
  • Wednesday's global focus will be the US employment report, though we also get the ECB's latest wage tracker and plenty of sovereign supply including a French syndication.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.9bps at 2.069%, 5-Yr is down 2.3bps at 2.383%, 10-Yr is down 3.2bps at 2.808%, and 30-Yr is down 3.7bps at 3.49%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.7bps at 3.643%, 5-Yr is down 0.6bps at 3.894%, 10-Yr is down 2.1bps at 4.506%, and 30-Yr is down 2.1bps at 5.325%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 0.6bps at 60.5bps / French OAT down 0.8bps at 59.8bps 

Historical bullets

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Recovery Mode

Jan-10 22:45
  • RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
  • RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
  • RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12  
  • PRICE: 95.890 @ 16:40 GMT Jan 9
  • SUP 1: 95.740 - Low Dec 22
  • SUP 2: 95.480 - Low 1st Nov ‘23
  • SUP 3: 94.932 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support. 

MNI: MNI TEST 02, Please Ignore

Jan-09 23:36

Test Test TEST

MNI: MNI Test, Please Ignore

Jan-09 23:30

Test, ignore