BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Full Recovery From US Payroll-Related Losses
Feb-11 17:26
European yields fell in a bull flattening move Wednesday, despite a stronger-than-expected US labour market report.
- After posting modest gains in morning trade, EGBs and Gilts reversed sharply to the session's worst levels after the US unemployment rate came in lower than expected in January with payroll gains above-consensus.
- But from that point on, there was a steady rally that more than reversed the initial pullback. Part of this appeared related to equity weakness, with US Treasuries lagging European counterparts.
- Both the German and UK curves bull flattened on the day, with Gilts slightly outperforming Bunds across the curve.
- Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads closed mixed but little changed.
- OATs notably outperformed after a 30Y syndication saw strong demand with a record book size for France.
- The highlight early Thursday is UK GDP data - sell-side analysts, and the BOE's latest forecast, look for 0.2% Q/Q growth in the first estimate of Q4 GDP. ECB speakers Thursday include Makhlouf, Nagel, and Lane.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.3bps at 2.066%, 5-Yr is down 0.5bps at 2.378%, 10-Yr is down 1.6bps at 2.792%, and 30-Yr is down 3.4bps at 3.456%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.9bps at 3.624%, 5-Yr is down 1.9bps at 3.875%, 10-Yr is down 3bps at 4.476%, and 30-Yr is down 4bps at 5.285%.
- Italian BTP spread unchanged at 60.5bps / French OAT down 0.8bps at 59bps
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SECURITY: Trump To Meet Machado At White House On Thursday - CNN
Jan-12 17:12
Alayna Treene at CNN reports on X, "Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado is scheduled to meet with President Trump at the White House on Thursday, a senior WH official tells me."
- The meeting could be a first public show of support for the Venezuelan opposition, with the Trump administration opting to negotiate directly with continuity interim President Delcy Rodríguez. So far, the Trump administration has declined to outline a timeline for new elections in the country.
- Shortly after the operation to remove former President Nicolas Maduro, Trump said, “I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader. She doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country.”
- Bloomberg noted on Jan 9, "Machado’s visit to the US along with the release of some political prisoners earlier Thursday could lift opposition morale after Trump’s mixed messaging."
- Oil executives emerged from a Friday meeting with Trump sceptical of the president’s plan to raise USD$100 billion to restore Venezuela’s degraded oil infrastructure. Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon, said, “We’ve had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes… Today it’s uninvestable.”
- Reuters reported earlier that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said additional US sanctions on Venezuela could be lifted as soon as next week to facilitate oil sales, and that he will meet next week with the heads of the IMF and World Bank on their re-engagement with Venezuela.
UK: Week Ahead
Jan-12 17:04
- This week sees speeches from MPC members Governor Bailey (delivery Tuesday, text published Friday), Taylor and Ramsden (both Wednesday) as well as monthly activity data as the highlights.
- Governor Bailey is due to speak on Tuesday at the Bellagio Group (in an event hosted by Deputy Governor Lombardelli). The text from his appearance will be published at 10:00GMT on Friday (previously the event wasn’t listed on the Bank’s website). It seems unlikely there will be anything regarding near-term monetary policy in his speech (given the delay between the speech being delivered and the text being released).
- Neither Taylor nor Ramsden’s speeches appear to be specific to monetary policy: Taylor is due to give a speech on “Driving over the peak – or a false summit” (text at 8:00GMT) – but even if this touches on monpol he is known to be a dove so this would not impact the market.
- Ramsden is giving a speech entitled “The evolution of resolution” – he is Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking so this appears to sit in the non-monpol part of his remit (text is due for release at 15:30GMT)
- Looking at the economic data, overnight saw the release of the KPMG-REC Report on Jobs (more softening of the quantities side of the labour market). Overnight tonight will see the release of BRC Shop Sales data (the survey period for which lines up with ONS retail sales) and this follows soft footfall in December in last week’s BRC survey. The main data of the week will be monthly activity data for November. Given the lag in this data, we think that it needs to be a pretty sizeable surprise to have any near-term impact on monetary policy. Looking at the Bloomberg survey, there appear to be two-way risks to a 0.1%M/M print for monthly GDP.
MNI: USDA: 2025/2026 CORN PRODUCTION EST 17.02B BSL
Jan-12 17:00
- MNI: USDA: 2025/2026 CORN PRODUCTION EST 17.02B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 CORN YIELD EST 186.50 BSL/ACRE
- USDA: 2025/2026 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION EST 4.26B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 SOYBEAN YIELD EST 53.00 BSL/ACRE
- USDA: 2025/2026 WHEAT PRODUCTION EST 1.98B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 WHEAT YIELD EST 53.30 BSL/ACRE
