BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bunds Underperform Ahead Of US Tariff Announcement

US President Donald Trump has issued another criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying in a message on Truth Social "this guy doesn’t want there to be Peace as long as he has America’s backing." Trump's Truth message links to an AP article citing Zelenskyy as saying a deal to end the war, “is still very, very far away.” 

• Trump's message also appears to criticise European leaders, who moved on Sunday to position themself as Ukraine's primary security guarantor. Trump claims that European leaders "stated flatly that they cannot do the job [of supporting Ukraine] without the U.S.", with Trump adding: "What are they thinking?"
• The message comes after Zelenskyy indicated yesterday in a lengthy thread on X that he is willing to re-engage with Trump: “We are ready to sign the minerals agreement, and it will be the first step toward security guarantees."
• However, Zelenkyy reiterated that: "A ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine... Ukrainian people need to know that America is on our side.” Those security guarantees are unlikely to be forthcoming, with the Trump administration adamant that enhanced commercial ties are sufficient to deter future Russian aggression.  
• Further European action will be coordinated at a special EU summit on Thursday - to include the UK and other non-EU NATO members - that will discuss “a new defense spending tool and other measures including loosening fiscal rules and incentives to get banks to lend for defense projects,” according to Politico.

The United States Trade Representative has published US President Donald Trump's '2025 Trade Policy Agenda'. Link

• USTR said in a statement that the five-page agenda, "lays out the Administration’s vision for trade, describing the economic and national security challenges facing the United States and articulates a plan for rebalancing trade to address those challenges, including the work required by the President's America First Trade Policy Presidential Memorandum."
• The agenda notes: "Right away, the Presidential Memorandum strikes at the threat posed by the trade deficit by directing USTR and other agencies to “investigate the causes of our country’s large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods, as well as the economic and national security implications and risks resulting from such deficits.” By reversing the flow of American wealth to foreign countries in the form of the trade deficit, the United States can reclaim its technological, economic, and military edge."
• The agenda states: "Going forward, the United States will take action to create the leverage needed to rebalance our trading relations and to re-shore production, including, but not limited to, through the use of tariffs. This will raise wages and promote a strong national defense."
• The document notes the 2026 renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement and says that the US will respond to "unfair practices," in the US-China bilateral trade relationship, which it describes as the "single biggest source of our country’s large and persistent trade deficit." 

• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q1 forecast was been slashed again, now showing at -2.8% vs -1.5% on Friday and down from +2.3% on Feb 19.
• After today's ISM survey and construction spending, personal consumption growth was revised down from 1.3% to 0.0% and private fixed invt growth from 3.5% to 0.1%.
• It adds to Friday’s substantial downward revision on the back of a huge, presumably temporary, trade drag after imports surged in January data.
• The economy has until this point proved surprisingly resilient, with real GDP growth of 2.5% Y/Y as of 4Q24 and 3.2% Y/Y as of 4Q23.