EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Austria and Slovenia look to hold syndications while Italy and Finland both still look to hold auctions this week. The EFSF has already held a syndication and the EU, Italy and Germany have already held auctions. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E31.4bln, up from E10.1bln last week.
- Slovenia has already opened books for a dual-tranche 3/5-year JPY Samurai issue (the originally planned 7/10-year bonds are not being issued). Pricing for both the 3-year Sep-27 and 5-year Sep-29 JPY Samurai bonds is expected on Thursday. Books closed for AXJ and Europe on Tuesday, and for Japan at 11am Tokyo time on Wednesday.
- Austria, announced a mandate for a new 5-year 20-Oct-29 RAGB and possible tap of the long 60-year 1.50% Nov-86 RAGB (AT0000A1PEF7). MNI expect the transaction to take place on Wednesday and pencil in E4-5bln for the new 5-year (and E1.0-1.5bln for the 60-year).
- On Thursday, Italy will return to the market to hold a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction, including the launch of a new 5-year BTP. On offer will be E4.0-4.5bln of the new 5-year 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055), E2.75-3.25bln of the 10-year 3.85% Feb-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005607970) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.05% Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467).
- Finally, on Thursday, Finland will look to hold an ORI operation to sell up to E0.4bln of RFGBs.
For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's issuance see the full PDF here:
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 2 July, 2024 (2/2)
- On Thursday, Spain will look to hold a Bono / Obli / ObliEi auction. On offer will be the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77), the on-the-run 10-year 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N35), the 5.15% Oct-44 Obli (ISIN: ES00000124H4) and the 0.65% Nov-27 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000128S2). The size will be announced this afternoon.
- France, also on Thursday will hold an LT OAT auction. On offer will be a combined E9.0-10.5bln of the on-the-run 10-year 3.00% Nov-34 OAT (ISIN: FR001400QMF9), the 15-year 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62), the 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2) and the on-the-run 30-year 4.00% Apr-55 OAT (ISIN: FR0010171975).
- Finally on Friday Belgium will conclude by holding an ORI operation, likely for up to E500mln. Details will be announced Thursday.
NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees three redemptions totalling E21.1bln: most notably E17.7bln from a formerly 5-year Spanish Bono and E3.25bln of a formerly 20-year Italian ISPA High Speed Railway Funding Note. Coupon payments for the week are E15.2bln, of which E10.1bln are Spanish and E4.9bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E6.6bln, versus negative E7.3bln last week.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 99.23 High Jun 21 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 98.46/93 High Jul 26 / 16
- PRICE: 98.23 @ Close Jul 26
- SUP 1: 97.46 Low Jul 22
- SUP 2: 96.96 Low Jul 3
- SUP 3: 96.57 Low Jul 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run
Gilt futures continue to trade below resistance at 98.93, the Jul 18 high. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 96.57, the Jul 1 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, Friday’s strong bounce is a positive development. A move through 98.93, and 99.23, the Jun 21 high, would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 29 July, 2024 (1/2)
Italy, Germany, Spain, France and Belgium all look to hold conventional auctions in the week ahead. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E29.7bln up from E18.9bln last week.
- Tomorrow, Italy will kick off issuance for the week by holding a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction, including the launch of a new 10-year BTP (as we expected). However, there is no new 5-year to be launched this month (with a new Oct-29 BTP now likely to be launched in August or September). On offer will be E1.25-1.50bln of the 4.10% Feb-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005566408), E1.25-1.75bln of the 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584849), E4.0-4.5bln of the new 3.85% Feb-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005607970) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.05% Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467).
- On Wednesday, Germany will look to conclude issuance for the month by selling E3bln of the short 7-year 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27006).
