EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Spain, France, and Belgium all look to hold auctions this week, while Germany held auctions including a Green auction and Italy conducted a bilateral buyback already this week. We pencil in an estimated gross issuance for the week at E23.4bln, down from E25.3bln last week.
- Spain this morning, will look to issue a Bono / Obli / ObliEi auction, including the launch of the new 7-year 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43). Also on offer will be the on-the-run 3-year 2.50% May-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M77), the 1.85% Jul-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012E69) and the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12). For the nominals, E5-6bln will be on offer (a little higher than recent auctions – but in line with our expectation given we have the new 7-year) and a E250-750mln range for the ObliEi.
- France also this morning, will hold an
auction to sell E8.0-10.5bln of LT OATs. On offer will be the 3.00% May-33
OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7), the 1.25% May-34 OAT (ISIN: FR0013313582), the 0.75%
May-53 OAT (ISIN: FR0014004J31) and the 1.75% May-66 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154028).
- We had expected a reduction in auction size to E8.5-10.5bln. So the upper end of the auction range is in line with our expectations, but the lower end marginally smaller. This is a similar reduction in size on offer to the mid-June MT OAT auction.
- Belgium, tomorrow will conclude issuance by holding an ORI Facility, likely for up to E500mln. Details will be announced this afternoon.
For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's issuance see the full PDF here:
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US TSY FLOWS: US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, 2Y likely Buyer
+5,100 FVU4 101-31.75, post time offer at 15:28:45 AEST, DV01 $200,000. Contract trades 101-31.625 last vs 102-00+ high
USDJPY TECHS: Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
- RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
- RES 1: 157.71 High May 29
- PRICE: 156.11 @ 06:40 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 154.65 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 153.81 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5
The trend outlook in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. However, the pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on key support at 154.65, the 50-day EMA, and 153.81, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low. A clear break of this support zone would be bearish. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume the short-term uptrend.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: W/C June 3, 2024
Spain, Belgium, Finland, the ESM, Greece and the EU are all due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany, the Netherlands, and France have already issued bills this week, . We expect issuance to be E24.3bln in first round operations, up from E18.9bln last week.
- This morning, Spain will look to sell a combined E4.5-5.5bln of the 6-month Dec 6, 2024 letras and the new 12-month Jun 4, 2025 letras,
- Also this morning, Belgium will look to sell the 31-week Jan 9, 2025 TC.
- Also today, Finland will come to the market to sell up to a combined E2bln of the 8-month Feb 13, 2025 RFTB and the new 11-month May 13, 2025 RFTB.
- Finally tomorrow, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Sep 5, 2024 bills.
- On Wednesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 52-week Jun 6, 2025 GTB.
- Finally on Wednesday, the EU will come to the market to sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Sep 6, 2024 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 6-month Dec 6, 2024 EU-bill.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
