EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Germany, Greece, Spain and France all look to issue this week. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E29.0bln, down a little from E31.1bln last week.
- Greece will look to hold a GGB auction today with up to E250mln of the 5-year 3.875% Jun-28 GGB (ISIN: GR0114033583) on offer.
- Also this morning, Germany will return to the market to hold a 30-year Bund auction. E1bln of the 0% Aug-52 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102572) will be on offer alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply W/C 19 June, 2023 (1/2)
Slovakia, Belgium, Germany and Greece look to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E12.4bln, down from E47.2bln this week.
- Slovakia will kick off issuance this morning selling 4/9/12/13-year SlovGBs. On offer will be the 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), the 4.00% Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958).
- Belgium will also come to the market today to sell E3.0-3.5bln 4/10/30-year OLOs: the 0% Oct-27 OLO (ISIN: BE0000351602), the 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666) and the 3.30% Jun-54 OLO (ISIN: BE0000358672).
- Tomorrow, Germany will look to sell E5.5bln of the 2.80% Jun-25 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22015).
AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Cleared
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14
- RES 3: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb - May downleg
- RES 2: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 1: 0.6900 High Jun 16
- PRICE: 0.6865 @ 06:43 BST Jun 19
- SUP 1: 0.6818/6768 High May 10 / Low Jun 15
- SUP 2: 0.6727 Low Jun 12
- SUP 3: 0.6708 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.6610 Low Jun 6
A strong rally last Thursday in AUDUSD reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed an extension of the bull cycle from May 31. The pair has cleared key resistance at 0.6818, the May 10 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6921 next, the Feb 20 high. Further out, scope is seen for gains to 0.6993, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 0.6768, the Jun 15 low.
BTP TECHS: (U3) Fresh Cycle Highs
- RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
- RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
- RES 2: 117.33 0.764 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
- RES 1: 117.16 High Jun 16
- PRICE: 115.56 @ Close Jun 15
- SUP 1: 114.61 Low Jun 15
- SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key short-term support
- SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
- SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high once again on Friday. The contract has recently cleared resistance at 116.36, the Jun 2 high and a short-term bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards 117.33, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 113.83, the Jun 8 low. A break would be bearish.
