EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
The EU, Italy, Austria, Germany, Portugal and Ireland all look to issue this week. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E16.3bln for the week (excluding retail funds from the BTP Italia), down from last week’s E33.1bln.
- This morning, Germany will return to the market to sell E4bln of the 2.10% Nov-29 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102622).
- Also today, Portugal will look to sell a combined E0.75-1.00bln of the on-the-run 10-year 1.65% Jul-32 OT (ISIN: PTOTEYOE0031) and the off-the-run 0.90% Oct-35 OT (ISIN: PTOTENOE0034).
- Ireland will look to round off Eurozone issuance for the week tomorrow with its first auction of 2023. It looks to sell a combined E1.00-1.25bln of the 10-year the 0.35% Oct-32 IGB (ISIN: IE00BMD03L28) and the 15-year 1.70% May-37 IGB (ISIN: IE00BV8C9B83).
- Italy is issuing a new 5-year Mar-28 BTP Italia this week. The guaranteed minimum annual real coupon has been set at 2.00% with retail investors who hold to maturity to also receive a bonus of 0.8%. The first phase of the placement will take place Mon-Wed for retail investors with an ISIN IT0005532715. The first two days have seen takeup of E6.57bln from retail investors (day 1 E3.637bln and day 2 E2.243bln). The second phase for institutional investors will be open from 10:00CET to 12:00CET on Thursday, with a separate ISIN.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply W/C Feb 6, 2023 (2/2)
- On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market with E4bln of the 7-year 2.10% Nov-29 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102622) on offer.
- Portugal will draw auction issuance to an end on Wednesday with E0.75-1.00bln of the 1.65% Jul-32 OT (ISIN: PTOTEYOE0031) on offer.
- In terms of syndications we think there is potential for a Belgian 20/30-year OLO, a 30-year French OAT, Italy (potentially CCTeu or BTPei) as well as a Spanish longer-dated Obli (possibly 15-year).
For more on this week's issuance see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.
USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 134.77 High Jan 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 134.54 Low Dec 14
- RES 2: 132.96 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.56 Intraday high
- PRICE: 131.87 @ 06:44 GMT Feb 6
- SUP 1: 130.34 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 128.09/127.23 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
USDJPY rallied Friday and the pair has gapped higher today. Attention turns to resistance at 132.96, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high. Gains are considered corrective - for now - and this is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 128.09, the Feb 2 low. The bear trigger is at 127.23, the Jan 16 low.
RBA: MNI RBA Preview - February 2023: Inflation To Drive Another 25bp
- The RBA is widely expected to hike rates 25bp to 3.35% at its February 7 meeting given the elevated Q4 CPI data that showed an increase in domestically-driven inflation pressures. Thus, the focus is likely to be on any change in tone of the statement and indications of how the RBA's forecasts have changed. The official forecasts are published in the Statement on Monetary Policy on February 10 but the flavour of the revisions is usually in the meeting statement.
- Click to view full preview: MNI RBA Preview - February 2023
