EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Spain and France both look to hold auctions this morning while the EU, the Netherlands and Germany have already held auctions. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E32.7bln this week, down from last week’s E42.8bln.
- This morning, Spain will look come to the market to sell E5-6bln of 3/6/10-year Bonos/Oblis and E250-750mln of a 10-year Obli-Ei: the 2.80% May-26 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012L29), the 0.80% Jul-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K53), the 3.15% Apr-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L52) and the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12).
- Later this morning, France will look to sell E10.5-12.0bln of LT OATs: the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3), the 1.25% May-34 OAT (ISIN: FR0013313582), the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62) and the 4.00% Apr-60 OAT (ISIN: FR0010870956).
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EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag?
- RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
- RES 1: 142.30 High Jan 25
- PRICE: 141.15 @ 06:50 GMT Jan 31
- SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
- SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
- SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25
EURJPY is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation. If correct, the pattern suggests scope for a break higher near-term. The 50-day EMA, at 141.73, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish condition and expose key resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, Jan 3 low.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C January 30, 2023
Italy, Germany, Spain, France and Belgium are all due to come to the market this week while the EU sold bonds yesterday. We look for gross nominal issuance at first round operations of E41.6bln for these deals, up from last week’s E32.0bln.
- This morning, Italy will come to the market with on-the-run 5/10-year BTPs and the on-the-run CCTeu on offer: E3.5-4.0bln of the 3.40% Apr-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005521981), E3.0-3.5bln of the 4.4% May-33 BTP (ISIN: IT0005518128) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.50% Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617).
- Also this morning, Germany will conclude January’s issuance with E6bln of the new 2.50% Mar-25 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22007) on offer. The coupon sees another step up in coupons and is higher than the 2.20% seen on the Dec-24 issue.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C Jan 30, 2022
Germany, France, Belgium, Greece and the EU will all look to issue bills this week. We look for issuance of E15.8bln at first round operations, down from E18.9bln last week.
- This morning, Belgium will look to sell an indicative E1.2bln of the 1.5-month Mar 9, 2023 TC (range E1.0-1.4bln).
- Tomorrow, Greece will look to sell E625mln of the new 13-week May 5, 2023 GTB.
- The EU will conclude issuance tomorrow with E1.0bln of the 3-month May 5, 2023 EU-bill and E1.5bln of the new 6-month Aug 4, 2023 EU-bill on offer.
