CHILE: Economist Survey Trims Rate Forecasts Following Dovish BCCh
Aug-10 13:11
- In the midst of the US inflation data, Chile’s central bank have released its latest survey of economists. Within the report, the 2023 year-end rate forecast has been lowered to 7.5% vs 8.00% in the prior survey. Further details are as follows:
- Economists see the key rate by 100bps at both the September and November meeting.
- The key rate would then drop to 5.00% in 11 months, and fall again to 4.00% in 23 months.
- Consumer prices to rise 0.3% m/m in August.
- 2023 year-end inflation lowered to 4.1% vs 4.2% last survey.
- 2024 year-end inflation held at 3.0%.
- For GDP: 2023 forecast held at -0.5%, 2024 forecast held at 2.0%, 2025 forecast held at 2.2%.
- Peso to trade at 820 CLP/USD in 11 months, and 800 in 23 months.
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Historical bullets
STIR: Effective Fed Funds Ratw
Jul-11 13:09
FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 5.08% volume: $125B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 5.07% volume: $270B
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EU-bond syndication: 2.50% Oct-52: Priced
Jul-11 13:07
- Spread set earlier at MS+66bp
- Original guidance: MS+69bps area revised to MS+67bp (+/-1bp WPIR)
- Tap Size: E4bln WNG (Set earlier)
- Reoffer: 83.131 to yield 3.422%
- Books closed above E73bln (inc E3bln JLM interest)
- Hedge ratio: 119% vs 0% Aug-52 Bund +86.8bp, ref 48.022
- Settlement: 18 July 2023 (T+5)
- ISIN: EU000A3K4DT4 (immediately fungible)
- JLMs: Barclays (DM/B&D), BNPP, Citi, LBBW, NWM
- Timing: TOE 13:52BST / 14:52CET, FTT immediately
From market source
STIR: Early SOFR Vol, Call Spread Buying
Jul-11 13:02
- +3,500 SFRH4 94.00/95.50 strangles, 34.0-34.5
- 3,000 SFRV3 95.37/96.37 call spds vs. 3QV3 97.25 calls
- +10,000 SFRU3 94.75/95.00/95/25 call flys, 1.25
