LOOK AHEAD: Economic Data Calendar 19/11/2025

A lot of focus has been on the onshore equity rally.  The CSI 300 has delivered gains of over +11% over the last 3 months, whilst over the same period the Hang Seng is up +1.7%.  The onshore / offshore divergence is a key theme at present, given the divergence in valuations.  The P/Es onshore now are elevated on a historical basis, even when compared to the post COVID period.  At 17.5x for the CSI 300, forecasts are for a year end close at 15.9x and 2026 a further decline.  The Hang Seng by comparison is currently at 11.6x and forecast to rise to 12.2x by year end. 

Fig 3: CSI 300 Price to Earnings

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI

Fig 4:  Hang Seng Price to Earnings

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI

Technicals: All major onshore equity bourses remain elevated on a P/E basis, though with falls last week have dipped below the 20-day EMA with Shenzhen near to the 50-day EMA for the first time since June.  The Hang Seng by comparison is trade through the 50-day EMA and is near to the 100-day EMA which it last broke below in April. 

Fig 5: Hang Seng Index vs 20, 50, 100 and 200-day EMA

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI

The bond market has for best part of this year seen the 10-Yr trading in a +18bps range, with no signs of a breakout.  The move above 1.90% in the CGB 10-Yr at the beginning of the month was short lived with it moderating back to 1.82% at the bottom end of recent ranges.  Having had a period of relative consistent liquidity injections via the daily OMO, last week saw two significant withdraws late in the week, which may be contributing to the downward move in yields and could be indicative of things to come.   Central Government bond issuance this week is focused on the 5-10 Year maturities, with significant size to be issued. 

• China to Sell CNY127 Bn 2028 Bonds
• China to Sell CNY149 Bn 2035 Bonds
• China to Sell CNY55 Bn 91-Day Bills
• China to Sell CNY55 Bn 182-Day Bills
• China to Sell CNY118 Bn 2032 Bonds
• China to Sell CNy129 Bn 2030 Bonds 

Sentiment: The strength of the equity market has seen people rushing to open equity accounts. Signs of life in the Shanghai real estate market are encouraging but will need to see a more sustained recovery in multiple key cities. Margin trade account openings have grown, though in context the size of China’s stock market also has nearly doubled in the past decade. The number of leveraged purchases as a proportion of total market capitalization was 2.2% as month end, slightly above the 10-year average but far below 2015’s peak of 4.6% (as reported by BBG).  

The ongoing announcements by President Trump on Chinese tariffs will be monitored closely though at this stage seems to be not being ignored by local investors with the CSI 300 down -2.26% on Friday.  Comments from President Trump on Friday may aid firmer China sentiment today. In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that 100% tariffs on top of what is in place already is "not sustainable", while adding that "We have to have a fair deal" with China. From late last week it also emerged that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and CHina Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet this wee (in Malaysia) ahead of the two Presidents meeting. Via BBG: "Bessent said he spoke virtually with He on Friday evening. The Treasury chief earlier described the discussions with He as “frank and detailed” and reaffirmed plans to meet in-person next week. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also took part in the online talks."