LOOK AHEAD: Economic Data Calendar 15/08/2025
Aug-14 18:24
| Date | GMT/Local | Period | Country | Release | Prior | Consensus | |
| 15/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | Q2 | JP | GDP q/q (sa) | 0 | 0.1 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | ytd | CN | Urban Fixed-Asset Investment y/y | 2.8 | 2.7 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | Jul | CN | Retail Sales y/y | 4.8 | 4.6 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | Jul | CN | Industrial Output y/y | 6.8 | 6 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | Jul | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate m/m | 5 | 5.1 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 0430/1330 | Jun | JP | Industrial Production m/m | 1.7 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 0430/1330 | Jun | JP | Industrial Production y/y | 4 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | Q2 | CH | Sports event adjusted GDP (p) | 0.8 | -0.1 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jun | CA | Manufacturing Sales | -0.9 | 0.4 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jun | CA | Wholesale Sales | -0.5 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (control group) m/m | 0.5 | 0.3 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto) m/m | 0.5 | 0.3 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto) m/m prev | -0.2 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto, gas) m/m | 0.6 | 0.3 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto, gas) m/m prev | 0 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales m/m | 0.6 | 0.5 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales m/m prev | -0.9 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Trade (control group) m/m prev | 0.2 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Exports Price Index m/m | 0.5 | 0 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Imports Price Index m/m | 0.1 | 0 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Aug | US | Empire Manufacturing Index | 5.5 | -1 | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (control group) m/m | 0.5 | 0.3 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto) m/m | 0.5 | 0.3 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto) m/m prev | -0.2 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto, gas) m/m | 0.6 | 0.3 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales (ex-auto, gas) m/m prev | 0 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales m/m | 0.6 | 0.5 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Sales m/m prev | -0.9 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Retail Trade (control group) m/m prev | 0.2 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1300/0900 | Jul | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales Monthly | 38.7 | -- | (k) |
| 15/08/2025 | 1315/0915 | Jul | US | Capacity Utilization | 77.6 | 77.6 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1315/0915 | Jul | US | Industrial Production m/m | 0.3 | 0 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1315/0915 | Jul | US | Previous Capacity Utilization Revised | 77.5 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1315/0915 | Jul | US | Previous Industrial Production Revised | 0 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Jun | US | Business Inventories m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Aug | US | U. Mich Consumer Expectations | 57.7 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Aug | US | U. Mich Consumer Sentiment | 61.7 | 62.1 | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Aug | US | U. Mich Current Economic Conditions | 68 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Aug | US | U. Michigan 1 Year Inflation | 4.5 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Aug | US | U. Michigan 5 Year Inflation | 3.4 | -- | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Jun | US | Business Inventories m/m | 0 | 0.2 | % |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes Canada Gas Rig Count | 57 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes Canada Oil Rig Count | 122 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes Canada Rig Count | 180 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count | 123 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | 411 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | 539 | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes Canada Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes Canada Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes Canada Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | 15-Aug | US | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 15/08/2025 | 2000/1600 | Jun | US | Long Term TICS Flows | 259.4 | -- | USD (b) |
| 15/08/2025 | 2000/1600 | Jun | US | Net TICS Flows | 311.1 | -- | USD (b) |
| 18/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | Jun | EU | Trade Balance | -- | -- | E (b) |
| 18/08/2025 | 1215/0815 | Jul | CA | CMHC Housing Starts | -- | -- | (k) |
| 18/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jun | CA | Intl Securities Transactions | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
| 18/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | Aug | US | NAHB Home Builder Index | -- | -- | |
| 19/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | Jun | EU | EZ Current Acc | -- | -- | E (b) |
| 19/08/2025 | 0900/1000 | Aug | UK | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | % |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | CA | Headline CPI m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | CA | Headline CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | CA | Median CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | CA | Trim CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Building Permits | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Building Permits Revised | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Completions | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Completions Revised | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Housing Starts | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Housing Starts Revised | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Building Permits | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Building Permits Revised | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Completions | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Completions Revised | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Housing Starts | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | Jul | US | Housing Starts Revised | -- | -- | (m) |
| 19/08/2025 | 1255/0855 | 16-Aug | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month) | -- | -- | % |
| 19/08/2025 | 1255/0855 | 16-Aug | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week) | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 2301/0001 | Jul | UK | Brightmine 3M Pay Deal | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | Jun | JP | Machinery orders m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0200/1400 | Aug | NZ | RBNZ OCR | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | Jul | UK | CPI m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | Jul | UK | CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | Jul | UK | Core CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | Jul | UK | Services CPI m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | Jul | UK | Services CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | Jul | UK | PPI Input y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | Jul | UK | PPI Output y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | Jul | DE | PPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0730/0930 | SE | Riksbank Policy Rate | -- | -- | % | |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | Jul | EU | HICP (f) m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | Jul | EU | HICP (f) y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | Jul | EU | HICP Core (f) m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | Jul | EU | HICP Core (f) y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | Jul | EU | HICP Services (f) m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | Jul | EU | HICP Services (f) y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 1100/0700 | 15-Aug | US | MBA Mortgage Applications w/w | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Crude Oil Domestic Production | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Crude Oil Domestic Production w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Crude Oil Stock ex. SPR | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Cushing, Oklahoma Stocks | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Cushing, Oklahoma Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Distillate Fuel Oil | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Distillate Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Gasoline Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Refinery % Operable Utilization | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Refinery % Operable Utilization change | -- | -- | % |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 15-Aug | US | Total Motor Gasoline | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Distillate Fuel Oil Products Supplied | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Distillate Fuel Oil Products Supplied w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Finished Motor Gasoline Products Supplied | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Finished Motor Gasoline Products Supplied w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Products Supplied | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Products Supplied w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Other Oils Products Supplied | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Other Oils Products Supplied w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Propane/Propylene Products Supplied | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Propane/Propylene Products Supplied w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Residual Fuel Oil Products Supplied | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Residual Fuel Oil Products Supplied w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Total Products Supplied | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | 16-Aug | US | Total Products Supplied w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (k) |
| 21/08/2025 | 2300/0900 | Jul | AU | Judo Bank Composite PMI (p) | -- | -- | |
| 21/08/2025 | 2300/0900 | Jul | AU | Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (p) | -- | -- | |
| 21/08/2025 | 2300/0900 | Jul | AU | Judo Bank Services PMI (p) | -- | -- |
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US TSY FUTURES: Testing Support, Focus on June PPI Inflation Data
Jul-15 18:07
- Treasury futures are extending lows in the last few minutes, Sep'25 10Y futures -15.5 at 110-09, through support at 110-10.5 (Low Jun 16). Next level to watch: 110-03 (76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg).
- Futures have been holding to a lower, narrow band since midmorning - better than average volumes (TYU5 over 1.66M) sees a modest pick up in selling in the last hour. Curves flatter, but well off early lows: 2s10s -.687 at 52.452 (46.396 low), 5s30s -2.342 at 96.329 (64.760 low).
- Futures had rejected the initial post-CPI rally (TYU5 110-30 high) as markets woke up to the fact there were clear signs that tariffs are starting to show up in the core goods data. Higher than expected Empire Mfg contributed to the sell-off at the margins.
- Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index near highs (BBDXY +5.55 at 1208.05) after broader increase in core goods across 56 items for a second month, with a median increase of 0.44% M/M in June is another marked acceleration, threatening to delay the Fed hitting their inflation target.
- Stocks near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed, the Nasdaq outperforming (+147.0 at 20787), buoyed by chip makers after Nvidia green-lighted for exports to China. Gold weaker (-14.32 at 3329.19), crude lower (WTI -0.52 at 66.46).
- Look ahead: June PPI data tomorrow morning followed by several Fed speakers before the Late Friday's policy Blackout starts.
US: Trump's Approval Rating Ticks Up Despite 'Turbulent Week' - Morning Consult
Jul-15 18:07
Morning Consult reports that Trump’s approval ratings ticked back up “despite a relatively turbulent week for his administration that featured fresh threats of tariffs and infighting over the Justice Department’s handling of disclosures regarding the Jeffrey Epstein case.”
- The outlet’s latest survey shows “47% of voters approve of his job performance, up 2 percentage points from last week, and 50% disapprove, a 2-point decrease over that time frame. Among Republicans, 89% approve of Trump’s job performance, up from 85% last week.”
- Morning Consult notes: “Trump garnered his best approval ratings on the economy and trade since early June … Voters were 13 points more likely to hear something negative than positive about the economy, but that’s the most favorable margin we’ve measured since mid-May.”
- According to SilverBulletin, Trump's aggregated approval remains stable, albeit on a slightly downward trend. The outlet notes that "individual polls aren’t showing much movement week-to-week. Donald Trump had a net approval rating was -11 in this week’s YouGov/Economist poll and last week’s YouGov/Economist poll."
Figure 1: President Donald Trump's Net Approval Rating
Source: Silver Bulletin
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Cycle Extends
Jul-15 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8697 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 0.8672 @ 16:39 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 0.8630 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 0.8592 20- day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8532 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
A bullish condition in EURGBP remains intact and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The break higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8592, the 20-day EMA.
