GLOBAL ENERGY: Eastern Province Residents in Saudi Arabia Receive Attack Alert

ERZ6 99.00c, bought for 0.75 in 10k.

NOKSEK is off session highs but remains up 0.38% today at 0.9420. The cross has pierced trendline resistance drawn from the March 2022 high. A clear break of this trendline would reinforce bullish conditions, but we caution that it has failed to do so on a few occasions over the past three years (e.g. August 2022, November 2024). Next resistance levels to watch are around 0.9450 and 0.9500.

• Spot has narrowed the gap to our simple fair value estimate based on 2-year nominal rate differentials and an oil/gas composite proxy (currently at ~0.95).
• Several analysts made hawkish revision to their Norges Bank projections last week following the higher-than-expected January CPI-ATE reading. SEB have followed suit, delaying their forecast for the next cut from June till December (followed by another cut in March to a terminal of 3.50%). Danske Bank meanwhile have pushed their June cut call to September (followed by cuts in December and March to a terminal of 3.25%)
• There was little reaction to this morning’s Swedish LFS data, with the pullback in the volatile unemployment rate fully driven by participation changes.
• The remainder of this week’s Scandi calendar is light until Swedish final January inflation on Friday. 

Figure 1: NOKSEK Since 2022 (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)

• RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing    
• RES 3: 7055.73 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 7043.00 High Jan 28 and bull trigger  
• RES 1: 6919.38/7011.50 50-day EMA / High Feb 11 
• PRICE: 6854.00 @ 14:39 GMT Feb 16
• SUP 1: 6751.50 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 6733.00 Low Nov 25 ‘25 
• SUP 3: 6691.56 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 28 bull leg
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 ‘25 and a key medium-term support   

A sharp sell-off on Feb 12 in S&P E-Minis reinstates a potential bearish threat leaving key resistance at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high and bull trigger, intact for now. Attention turns to the key support at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break would highlight a top and a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 6691.56, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance to watch is at 6919.38, the 50-day EMA.