US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Better limited downside put structures noted in SOFR options overnight while Treasury options saw better upside call trade in 5s and 10s. Underlying futures trading weaker, near recent lows.
- SOFR Options:
- Block, 5,500 SFRH4 96.75/97.50/98.25 call flys, 6.0 ref 95.995 to 96.00
- Block, 3,000 SFRN3 94.50/94.75/95.06/95.18 put condors, 4.0 ref 95.185
- 1,750 SFRN3 94.62/94.87 put spds, ref 95.195
- Block, 4,000 OQK3 95.81/96.00/96.25 broken put flys, 4.5 vs. 96.45/0.10%
- 7,500 SFRM3 95.00/95.06/95.12/95.18 put condors
- 3,000 SFRN3 94.50/94.93/95.00/95.18 put condors
- Block, 5,000 SFRU3 94.87/94.75/95.37/95.50 iron condors vs. 95.215/0.10%
- Treasury Options:
- 8,800 TYM3 114 puts, 50 ref 114-21.5
- 3,000 TYK3 113 puts, 2 ref 114-26.5
- 2,100 TYK3 118/119.75 1x2 call spds ref 114-29
- 4,700 TYK3 114 puts, 7 ref 114-26.5
- 2,200 TYM 113 puts, ref 114-26.5
- 5,250 FVM3 110 calls, 38 ref 109-16.5
- 1,500 FVM3 112.5 calls, 7 ref 109-15.5
- 2,000 TYM3 118 calls, 16 ref 114-30.5
- 2,000 TYK3 115 calls, 21 ref 114-29.5
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USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
- RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3733 @ 16:44 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 1.3652 Low Mar 14
- SUP 2: 1.3562 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
- SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21
The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3652, Tuesday’s low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
- RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 0.6784/87 High Mar 1 and a key resistance / 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 0.6696 @ 16:43 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.
