EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6953.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6896.00 @ 14:32 GMT Oct 30
- SUP 1: 6812.25/6780.35 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6676.22 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6974.04 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6748.48, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Latest Vol Sales
- -5,000 SFRX5 96.12/96.62 strangles, 1.75
- -3,000 SFRV5 96.31 straddles, 6.25-6.0
- -12,900 0QV5 96.93 calls 4.5 ref 96.905
US DATA: Conference Board Labor Differential Hits Fresh Cycle Low
Standing out in a broadly weak Conference Board consumer confidence survey for September, the "labor differential" (jobs "plentiful" minus "hard to get") fell to 7.8 from 11.1 in August (rev from 9.7). That's the weakest since 2017 when excluding the 2020-21 pandemic period.
- While the percentage of those seeing jobs as "hard to get" was steady at 19.1%, the proportion seeing jobs as "plentiful" (26.9%) was the lowest since February 2021, but excluding the April 2020-Feb 2021 pandemic period, it was the lowest since February 2017.
- This is a closely-watched indicator for broader labor market conditions. It's historically correlated with the unemployment rate and having come down from over 22 at the end of last year, this has shown a decisive cooling which points to a continued rise in joblessness. A similar reading in 2017 was consistent with unemployment around 5.0%, vs 4.3% as of August.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCKs: Dec'25 5Y & 30Y Sales
Futures coming off recent highs after latest Block sales:
- -3,000 USZ5 117-02, sell through 117-03 pos time bid at 1019:10ET, DV01 $42,600
- -10,400 FVZ5 109-09.5, sell through 109-10 post time bid at 1017:41ET, DV01 $456,400
