The medium-term trend condition in EuroStoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the latest pullback through the 50-day EMA appears corrective. A clear break below this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 6086.00, the Jan 3 high. A move through this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. A short-term bearish theme in S&P E-Minis resulted in a break last week of 6814.50, the Jan 21 low and a bear trigger. This proved short-lived, however, with prices rising swiftly back above to begin this week. Note this puts the contract back above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Any continuation lower would open 6691.56, a Fibonacci retracement point. The contract has recovered today. Initial firm resistance now is 7025.43, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
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Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support.
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