EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
Mar-21 13:48
- RES 4: 5937.64 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 2: 5810.56 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5770.50 High Mar 19
- PRICE: 5662.00 @ 13:38 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are allowing this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5937.64, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger is 5559.75, the Mar 13 low.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Senate Takes The Lead On Trump's Agenda
Feb-19 13:35
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- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) opened floor action on a budget resolution to underpin a USD$300 billion reconciliation bill, escalating a showdown with the House over President Donald Trump's agenda. The move signals the Senate is sceptical Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can corral his conference behind a single 'megabill' that includes deep spending cuts and a debt ceiling hike.
- President Trump added another layer of complexity to the House reconciliation plan, telling Fox News’ Sean Hannity that Medicaid will be ringfenced from cuts, leaving few options for achieving spending cuts required to fund Trump's tax agenda.
- President Trump issued a fresh tariff threat yesterday, telling reporters that he is likely to impose a 25% tariff on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports as soon as April 2, when an interagency trade review is completed.
- Trump signed an executive order that would give him more authority over agencies that operate with some independence from the White House.
- The Trump administration upended years of US policy towards Russia, pledging to restore lines of communication with Moscow and appearing to endorse several key Kremlin talking points over the war in Ukraine.
- Trump’s hardline position on Ukraine, although telegraphed on the presidential election campaign trail, may be a difficult sell to Senate Republicans – many of whom have spent years advocating for Ukraine funds and bolstering NATO.
- Poll of the Day: 70% of voters believe tariffs will raise prices.
Full article: US DAILY BRIEF
BONDS: Italian Futures are keeping EGBs under pressure
Feb-19 13:34
- The Italian BTP is helping EGBs take another leg lower, there's also likely been some interest in fading the BTP/Bund spread ahead of the 100bps level Yesterday and into Today.
- Looking at the outright future, some will look for next support below the figure at 118.65 (24th Jan low).
- In Yield terms, that 24th January high of 3.682%, equates to 118.72 Today.
MNI: US JAN HOUSING STARTS 1.366M; PERMITS 1.483M
Feb-19 13:30
- MNI: US JAN HOUSING STARTS 1.366M; PERMITS 1.483M
- US DEC STARTS REVISED TO 1.515M; PERMITS 1.482M
- US JAN HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1.651M; DEC 1.534M (REV)
