EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Breaches Resistance
Apr-25 13:35
- RES 4: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 5625.35 50-day EMA and a key resistance
- RES 1: 5553.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5506.00 @ 14:24 BST Apr 25
- SUP 1: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
- SUP 2: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 3: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
The corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play for now. The contract has traded higher this week and in the process breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance to watch is 5625.35, the 50-day EMA. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish.
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US DATA: Gold-Adjusted GDPNow Due Today, ~2pp Impact
Mar-26 13:33
- Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow will be updated today and will also include a more formal “gold-adjusted” estimate now that we’re out of the FOMC media blackout.
- GDPNow’s Patrick Higgins wrote on LinkedIn on Mar 7 that its gold-adjusted figure would have been tracking at -0.4% for Q1 real GDP growth rather than -2.4% in its formal Mar 6 update. Alternatively, it would have been +0.4% rather than -1.6% in a post-payrolls intermediate update on Mar 7.
- We don’t see a reason why this 2pp gold adjustment will be revised in today’s update, which applying to the -1.8% in the latest update from Mar 18 would leave a gold-adjusted +0.2%.
- As a reminder, this gold adjustment is being made after a surge in monetary gold imports in January in what was seen primarily as an arbitrage play, with these non-productive assets captured in import data but not in GDP data.
- Tomorrow’s advance February report will only give a clue as to how much this has changed, in the broad “industrial supplies” category, before a much better idea with the full release on Apr 3.
- For now, Comex gold inventories climbed further in February (with a 25% increase through Feb after 47% through Jan) and indeed Bloomberg consensus currently eyes a goods trade deficit of $138bn in Feb, narrowing from $156bn in Jan but still above the $122bn in Dec and $104bn in Nov.
- Looking through some of these impacts rather than the more mechanical Atlanta Fed GDPNow approach, GS see Q1 real GDP tracking at 1.3% annualized. That’s still a sizeable moderation from the 2.35% in Q4 and 3.1% in Q3.
EUR: EURUSD Slides to Fresh Weekly Low Amid Supportive Greenback Tone
Mar-26 13:30
- A broader greenback bid sees EURUSD slide through the overnight/Tuesday lows of 1.0778/77 respectively, which extends the pair’s pullback from its recent high.
- The move down is still considered technically corrective at this juncture, and first support to watch is 1.0763, the 20-day EMA. Below here, more significant support is seen further out at 1.0631, a key short-term pivot level.
UK DMO UPDATE: "Programmatic gilt tenders" to be introduced for off-the-run gilt
Mar-26 13:27
- The DMO's remit notes that:
- "The DMO will be introducing programmatic gilt tenders in 2025-26 to assist with the delivery of the financing remit. It is envisaged that these operations will typically involve the sale of "off-the-run" gilts. The DMO will announce the planned dates of these gilt tender operations as part of its quarterly gilt issuance calendar and will typically include the type and maturity sector (for conventional gilts) of the gilt to be tendered in each case, taking into account market feedback both ahead of each quarter and, with respect to the identity of the gilt to be issued, closer to each tender date. Market participants will be consulted on the identity of the gilt and the maximum size to be offered at each individual gilt tender ahead of the planned gilt tender date. The gilt, nominal size, and scheduled tender date will typically be confirmed at least two business days prior to the planned tender date."
- We assume that this is the main reason behind the larger unallocated bucket.
- But what it means is there is actually LESS certainty that the unallocated bucket will end up in mediums / longs.
- Note that in the current fiscal year, the DMO held three tenders for the 0.125% Jan-26 gilt.This kind of operation may become more common if there is market demand.
- So shorts could actually end up being larger than announced here.
- We will know more on how the DMO plans to run this in the consultation agenda which is due out at 15:30GMT.
