EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Bear Cycle Extends
Apr-04 14:27
- RES 4: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 5723.04 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5435.00/5564.75 Intraday high / High Apr 3
- PRICE: 5235.75 @ 15:17 BST Apr 4
- SUP 1: 5172.00 1.000 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- SUP 2: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 3: 5015.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 5000.00 Psychological round number
S&P E-Minis have traded in a volatile manner and traded sharply lower this week. A bearish theme remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows, strengthens current conditions. Scope is seen for an extension towards 5172.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
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BOE: Greene sounds as though quarterly cuts remain her base case for now
Mar-05 14:27
We think there are few surprises in Greene's Annual Report. We would interpret the following as being consistent with her supporting a quarterly cut path in the short-term:
- "It’s less likely inflation persistence will fade on its own accord, and more likely monetary policy will need to remain restrictive in order to either generate a negative output gap to bring inflation to target sustainably or to lean against structural shifts in the economy. While the disinflationary trend is broadly intact, I believe it is appropriate to maintain a cautious and gradual approach to removing monetary restrictiveness."
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
Mar-05 14:26
SPX: 5,783.2 (+0.1%); DJIA: 42,524 (+0.0%/+3pts); NDX: 20,399.6 (+0.2%).
BOE: Greene Annual Report Highlights
Mar-05 14:25
- Greene's Annual Report has been released early here. Key quotes below:
- "While I have concerns the recent weakness in activity, is demand-driven, the evidence suggests to me that it is more a consequence of constrained supply. In my opinion, this means the probabilities have shifted away from what we’ve called a Case 1 world towards a Case 2 or 3 world. In other words, it’s less likely inflation persistence will fade on its own accord, and more likely monetary policy will need to remain restrictive in order to either generate a negative output gap to bring inflation to target sustainably or to lean against structural shifts in the economy. While the disinflationary trend is broadly intact, I believe it is appropriate to maintain a cautious and gradual approach to removing monetary restrictiveness."
- "The weakness in activity could be driven by tepid demand relative to supply or flagging supply relative to demand. If the former, that could require an easier stance of monetary policy to return inflation to our target. If the latter, that would sustain domestic wage and price pressures and would require Bank Rate to remain restrictive for longer."
- "Soft activity is no doubt some combination of weak demand and supply, but I think there are reasons to expect it is primarily supply-driven."
- "While I don’t think there is a serious risk of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored, inflation will likely spend its fifth consecutive year above target this year. That may lower the threshold above which even a short-term rise in inflation feeds through into second-round effects."
