EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 7056.95 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 7043.00 High Jan 28 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 7022.98 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- PRICE: 6997.50 @ 14:48 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 6923.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6751.50 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support
- SUP 3: 6691.56 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 211 and a key medium-term support
The firm reversal higher on Feb 6 in S&P E-Minis refocuses attention on the primary uptrend and key resistance at 7043.00, the Jan 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and mark the end of a flat correction in the contract. Key short-term support has been defined at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break is required to highlight a top and a stronger short-term reversal.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Calming Down After Last Week's Record Issuance
Reminder: The next earnings cycle kicks off in earnest this week with Bank of NY Mellon, JPM reporting on Tuesday January 13, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/12 $700M #POSCO $400M 5Y +75. $300M 10Y +90
- 01/12 $Benchmark MuniFin WNG 4Y SOFR
- 01/12 $Benchmark Vistra Operations 5Y +125a, 10Y +150a
- 01/12 $Benchmark Energy Transfer 5Y +110a, 10Y +145a, 30Y +175a
- 01/12 $Benchmark National Bank of Canada 3NC2 +87.5a, 3NC2 SOFR
- 01/12 $Benchmark Rep of Indonesia +5Y 4.7%a, +10Y 5.3%a, +30Y 5.8%a
- 01/12 $Benchmark investor calls: Jefferies, Triton Int, Rithm Capital, Telecom Argentina, Azule Energy
- 01/09 No new issuance Friday - after record $164.15B issued over the week - as much or more than whole month supply in just one week.
US: Shutdown Risk Low As Congress Works Through FY26 Funding Bills
The Senate will vote to advance a House-passed ‘minibus’ of three FY26 funding bills at 17:30 ET 22:30 GMT today. The minibus covers Commerce-Justice-Science, Energy-Water, and Interior-Environment. If the Senate passes the package, Congress will have completed six of the twelve annual spending bills.
- House Republican leaders want to pass another bipartisan funding package, covering State-Foreign Operations and Financial Services, as soon as Wednesday. A third bill covering the Department of Homeland Security was dropped from the package after negotiations broke down over the fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis.
- Semafor notes, “the Senate’s decision to advance a resolution limiting Trump’s military options in Venezuela could delay an effort to approve a package of three spending bills. After this week, the Senate will go on recess for a week, with the House set to follow at the end of the month — leaving little time for cross-chamber coordination. And Democrats’ rising anger over last week’s ICE shooting could further impact the funding fight ahead of the Jan. 30 deadline.”
- Despite government funding expiring on January 30, markets are sanguine on the possibility of another shutdown. Polymarket puts the risk at just over 25%. Although it may change, there has yet to be a suggestion that Democrats could leverage another shutdown in opposition to Trump's Venezuela operations or heavy-handed ICE tactics.
Figure 1: Government Shutdown by January 31
Source: Polymarket
BOE APF SALES RESULTS: Strong demand at the short-dated APF sales operation
- All of the sales were of 2029 gilts (with the 0.50% Jan-29 gilt eligible for the last time at today's operation).
- There was also strong demand for the 4.25% Jun-32 gilt in particular - with over GBP1.0bln of bids.
