EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Short-Term Reversal Threat Still Present
Feb-12 14:52
RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31
- RES 1: 6123.25 High Feb 7
- PRICE: 6039.75 @ 14:41 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance
Price action on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
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BOE APF SALES RESULTS: Detailed results
Jan-13 14:50
All sales are of the 0.125% Jan-28 gilt in the last operation its eligible to be sold in.
| Short Gilts | Bids received | BOE sells | WAAP | Prev bids | Prev sales |
| 4.25% Dec-27 | Gilt maturity | too short | (below 3y) | GBP419.5m | GBP144.6m |
| 0.125% Jan-28 | GBP1,322.2m | GBP749.9m | 88.265 | GBP1,407.9m | GBP655.3m |
| 1.625% Oct-28 | GBP144.4m | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | |
| 6.00% Dec-28 | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | ||
| 0.50% Jan-29 | GBP85.8m | GBP0.0m | GBP173.2m | GBP0.0m | |
| 0.875% Oct-29 | GBP34.1m | GBP0.0m | GBP14.7m | GBP0.0m | |
| 0.375% Oct-30 | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | ||
| 4.75% Dec-30 | GBP95.4m | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | |
| 0.25% Jul-31 | GBP0.0m | GBP9.3m | GBP0.0m |
BOE APF SALES RESULTS: GBP750mln of short-dated gilts with bid-to-cover of 2.24x
Jan-13 14:48
Previous bid-to-cover ratios: most recent first: 2.53x, 3.22x, 1.84x, 1.64x.
Note previous operations had GBP800mln size.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Analysts See Close Call Between 0.2/0.3% M/M For Core CPI
Jan-13 14:44
- Wednesday’s US CPI report headlines the weekly calendar, with Bloomberg consensus currently looking for a 0.2% M/M print for core CPI in what’s a close call with a 0.3% M/M.
- Indeed, our initial review of 13 unrounded analyst estimates sees these generally more detailed projections centered around 0.25% M/M for core CPI in December.
- That would be a moderation from the 0.31% M/M in November and four months oscillating between 0.28-0.31% M/M since August.
- Initial core PCE estimates meanwhile point to a softer outright print, averaging 0.21% M/M (initial range of 0.19-0.27), but directionally it's different as it would be an acceleration after a soft 0.115% M/M in Nov. Prior to that soft spot, core PCE had averaged 0.26% M/M in Sep-Oct.
- Tomorrow’s PPI report will no doubt impact core PCE tracking before a greater convergence in analyst estimates after CPI on Wednesday.
- There's a greater difference between unrounded estimates and the broader median when it comes to headline CPI tracking, however. Unrounded analyst estimates average 0.39% M/M, and whilst 20 of 48 Bloomberg estimates look for a 0.4% increase, 24 look for 0.3% and 4 look for just 0.2%, leaving an overall average of 0.33% M/M.
