GERMAN DATA: Downside Risks to German CPI Following State Prints
Jun-29 09:01
- The German regional CPI readings for June saw 0.2-0.6pp decelerations across the board.
- The state readings published this morning account for 67.3% of the total June rate. Out state-weighted calculation of the German June CPI rate accounts for 67.3% of the total print and sees inflation at +7.6%, which would imply a 0.3pp slowdown from May.
- Our calculation expects substantial downside risks to the consensus forecast of inflation flatlining at +7.9% y/y in Germany's index, and the 0.1pp uptick anticipated for the harmonised print to +8.8% y/y. The release time is 1300 BST.
| June y/y | May y/y | Difference | Destatis Weighting | |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 7.5 | 8.1 | -0.6 | 21.7% |
| Hesse | 8.1 | 8.4 | -0.3 | 7.7% |
| Bavaria | 7.9 | 8.1 | -0.2 | 16.8% |
| Brandenburg | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 2.6% |
| Baden Wuert. | 7.1 | 7.4 | -0.3 | 14.1% |
| Saxony | 7.7 | 8.0 | -0.3 | 4.4% |
| Total: 67.3% | ||||
| Weighted average: | +7.62% y/y | for | 67.3% of total CPI |
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EUROZONE DATA: Economic Sentiment Broadly Unchanged, Industry Confidence Weakens
May-30 09:00
EZ MAY ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR 105.0; APR 104.9r
EZ MAY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -21.1 (FLASH CONFIRMED); APR -22.0
EZ MAY INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE 6.3; APR 7.7r
EZ MAY SERVICES CONFIDENCE 14.0; APR 13.6r
EZ MAY EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS 112.9; APR 112.6
- Eurozone economic sentiment was broadly unchanged in May at 105.0, 0.1 points above the April level. Sentiment in the EU saw a 0.5-point decrease to 104.1, largely due to lower confidence of industry managers.
- On a country level, Spain saw confidence up 4.1 points, followed by France +1.5 and Italy +0.8. Germany saw little improvement at +0.2. The Netherlands (-1.2) and Poland (-0.8) saw economic sentiment fall further in May.
- Employment expectations saw a moderate 0.3-point increase to 112.9.
- The 1.4-point fall in industry confidence was underscored by current order books seeing the steepest fall in two years. Production expectations saw a slight decline and outlooks of export order books saw substantial deterioration. At 6.3, industrial confidence was 1.2-points below forecasts.
- Service confidence ticked up by 0.4 points, however, demand expectations weakened.
- May consumer confidence was confirmed at -21.1, up 0.9 points from April. Expectations about the general economic situation worsened, however intentions to make major purchases and expectations about future financial situations saw improvements.
- The proximity of the Ukraine war coupled with surging inflation of 7.4% in April continues to see consumer confidence in starkly pessimistic territory. Tomorrow will see the May flash HICP reading, which will likely be a fresh high of 7.8%.
Source: European Commission
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