THB: Downside 31.00 Test Still In Focus As Post Election Optimism Continues

USD/THB sits up modestly from earlier lows, last at 31.14. Earlier we got to just under 31.08, so not far off a re-test under the 31.00 level, which marked late Jan lows for the pair. This is a further 0.30% gain in THB today, after yesterday's 1.3% surge. Pre-election highs around 31.80/90, which also coincides with the 100-day EMA resistance point, is a likely topside focus point on any renewed upside in the pair. The near term bias still looks for a lower test, as market sentiment was boosted by the weekend election result. Still, there is caution from some sell-side names on the pair, particularly as we progress further into 2026, given policy efforts to curb THB outperformance (see below) 

• The SET index is up a further 0.65% so far today, through 1400, amidst strong offshore inflows (+$500mn yesterday). Indeed Thailand has seen the strongest 2026 YTD inflows within EM Asia markets (ex China). Gold's modest dip so far today isn't impacting THB greatly.
• Goldman Sachs still believes the authorities will look to curb gold outperformance and curb THB outperformance: "we think THB will gradually shift to underperform low-yield Asian FX markets this year, after outperforming peers and market expectations last year. Both the BoT and MoF appear unified in trying to curb THB strength (including trying to de-linking the gold/THB correlation) with some measures already announced (such as limits on online gold trading) and more likely in the pipeline, post the formation of the new government. "