US: Donald Trump's Tax Records To be Released Shortly

Dec-30 13:54

The US House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee is shortly due to release the tax records of former President Donald Trump.

  • Lauren Fox at CNN writes: "It wasn't always assumed the returns would be released to the public. That decision was voted on in committee last week and passed along party lines."
  • The Hill reports: "While tax experts aren’t expecting huge revelations from the raw returns for 2015 to 2020, the more detailed documents could provide additional information on key areas of interest regarding the former president's businesses and professional associations."
  • Former CIA officer and journalist Frank Snepp told the Hill: "Those of us who are interested in his relationship with Russia will be looking for any kind of confirmation of what Don [Trump] Jr. said in 2008 that Trump interests had received much of their money from Russian sources."
  • The release of the records come after a four-year legal battle between Trump and House Democrats who argued that, while US presidents aren't compelled to disclose records, Trump documents should be released to audit the role the IRS.

Historical bullets

US: Rep Hakeem Jeffries Set To Become Top Democrat In House Of Representatives

Nov-30 13:53

House Democrats will meet today to elect their new leadership group. The trio of Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Katherine Clark (D-MA), and Pete Aguilar (D-CA) - standing unopposed - will define the future direction of the party after two decades under the stewardship of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC).

  • The unity amongst Democrats in support of Jeffries is starkly contrasted with the rancorous infighting surrounding House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) bid to take the Speaker’s gavel from Pelosi.
  • Jeffries wrote in a letter announcing his leadership bid: “More must be done to combat inflation, defend our democracy, secure reproductive freedom, welcome new Americans, promote equal protection under the law and improve public safety throughout this country.”
  • Centrist Rep Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) said: "I think [Jeffries] really appreciates that we have a diverse caucus with lots of perspectives."
  • WaPo: "[The trio] will be faced with ensuring the ideological factions within the caucus are heard and represented in key decisions, a desire members have long had after decades of centralized power wielded by Pelosi."

BONDS: Eurex roll pace update

Nov-30 13:50
  • Still a little early for Eurex rolls, but they have traded a little bit today.
  • Bund spread has traded 34.6k outright, and volume in March stands at 53.3k, so likely more done on legs.
  • Spread should really start to pick up next week, with expiry on the 8th Dec.

Roll pace:

  • Buxl: 5.2%.
  • Bund: 9.0%.
  • Bobl: 10.0%.
  • Schatz: 9.0%.
  • BTP: 5.0%.
  • BTS: 15.0%.
  • OAT: 12.0%.

US TSYS: Post-GDP React

Nov-30 13:48

Tsys reverse course, extend lows post GDP, Wholesale Inventories beat; 30YY climbs to 3.8272% high, yield curves holding flatter (2s10s -1.547 at -75.279). Equities trim gains, SPX eminis near steady at 3962.25

  • GDP Annualized QoQ (2.9% vs. 2.8% est. 2.6% prior)
  • GDP Price Index (4.3% vs. 4.1% est, 4.1% prior)
  • Personal Consumption (1.7% vs. 1.6% est, 1.4% prior)
  • Core PCE QoQ (4.6% vs. 4.5% est, 4.5% prior)
  • Retail Inventories MoM (-0.2% vs. 0.5% est, -0.1% rev)
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.8% vs. 0.5% est, 0.6% prior)
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$99.0B vs. -$90.6B est, -$91.9B rev)