USD: Dollar Dips into NY Hours, But Volumes Lacking
Jun-01 10:16
- Further fade in the greenback tilts GBP/USD, EUR/USD to a new daily high - very modest uptick in volumes on the move, but cumulative volumes so far remain below the running average for this time of day (follows yesterday's very active session: total EUR futures volumes were 50% above normal.
- Next intraday upside level at 1.0712 - the 76.4% retracement for yesterday's pullback - but resistance seen scant into the 1.0811/42 20- and 50-day EMAs.
- Despite the debt ceiling deal clearing the House yesterday, opening the next step in the Senate, intraday USD rallies remain capped by the 'skip' narrative raised by Jefferson yesterday - raising focus on an appearance from Harker later today, who is the final currently scheduled Fed speaker before the media blackout and Jun14 FOMC decision.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Futures Remain Vulnerable
May-02 10:13
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in consolidation mode. The broader trend theme is bullish, however, the yellow metal has recently entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1987.8, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. A move lower would open $1952.6, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- In the oil space, the outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and last Wednesday's strong sell-off reinforces the current theme. $73.98 was pierced late last week, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally. A clear break of this level would open $72.76, the Mar 30 low. A key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.18, the Apr 24 high where a breach is required to ease bearish pressure.
EUR: Testing new intraday low against the Dollar
May-02 10:08
- The EUR is on the back foot, although still holding onto some small gains against the Swissy, up 0.20%, the EUR is flat versus the GBP, CAD, NOK, but is extending losses against the Dollar.
- Note that there's 3.4bn between 1.0960/1.1000 of Option expiry for today , expiry at 15.00BST/10.00ET.
LOOK AHEAD: JOLTS, Factory Orders
May-02 10:04
* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
* May-02 1000 FOMC day one of two
* May-02 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (9931k, 9736k)
* May-02 1000 Factory Orders (-0.70%, 1.3%)
* May-02 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-0.40%, --)
* May-02 1000 Wards Total Vehicle Sales (14.82M, 15.10M)
* May-02 1130 US Tsy $40B 21-Day CMB auction
