UK DATA: DMP data for December include something for everyone

The BOE's Decision Maker Panel (DMP) data for December shows no major moves either higher or lower in the most important categories. There is still something for both the hawks and doves in here: realised wage growth continues to decelerate but only slowly while expected wage growth still remains higher than the around 3.5% levels reported from early Agents' expectations. CPI expectations and perceptions all fell a little, but remain above target. Employment growth was positive in December after some soft recent prints but expected employment growth over the next year is still negative. More details:

• Realised employment growth was 0.5%Y/Y on the single month measure - not as concerning as the -1.8%Y/Y rate seen in November but the 3-month average is now -0.4%Y/Y with the single month print the highest since May. Looking at expected employment growth the single month measure is negative at -0.2%Y/Y, but less so than seen in either November (-0.7%) or October (-0.4%). This is still enough to move the 3-month average down to -0.4%Y/Y, the lowest since October 2020.
• Expected wage growth was 3.7%Y/Y on the single month figure. This compares to 3.6% in November and 3.8% in October. Indeed, it is also a tenth lower than when the same cohort was asked the question in September. This puts the 3-month average at 3.7% (after rising to 3.76% in the 3-months to December and rounding up to 3.85).
• Realised wage growth was 4.3% on the single month print and saw the 3-month average fall a tenth to 4.4%Y/Y.
• Turning to prices, mean expected price growth on the single month measure was 3.5%Y/Y - the same as in November and May; outside of August 2024 we have not seen a single month print below 3.5% since August 2021. The 3-month average ticked down a tenth to 3.6% but has remained in a tight 3.6-3.7% range since May.
• 1/3-year ahead single-month CPI expectations, as well as single month perceptions of current CPI were all lower than in November (and September when this cohort was last asked this question). 3-year ahead CPI expectations on the single month measure have remained between 2.9-3.0% since August. 1-year ahead single month expectations fell to 3.2%Y/Y after four consecutive 3.4%Y/Y prints. Current CPI perceptions fell to 3.6% on the single month measure after three prints at 3.8%.