US: Democrats Hold Strong Leader In Generic Congressional Ballot
Jan-23 18:06
Silver Bulletin has launched its generic Congressional ballot ahead of the 2026 midterm election: “Today, our average has the generic ballot at D +5.3. That’s an 8.7-point shift toward Democrats over the past year. For historical context, that puts Democrats behind where they were at this point in 2018 (D +9.3), but ahead of where the opposition party was this far into other recent cycles.”
- Nate Silver notes, “Democrats currently lead by 5.3 points in our generic ballot average. That implies that everything from an 11.0-point Democratic win to a 0.4-point Republican edge is within the margin of error, which covers 95 percent of possible outcomes.”
- The Hill noted yesterday, "Democrats are ahead of Republicans by 6 percentage points on a generic congressional ballot, according to a poll released Thursday. In the Emerson College poll, 48.1 percent of respondents backed a Democratic candidate in a hypothetical 2026 match-up. The Republican candidate garnered 41.7 percent backing in the hypothetical matchup and 10.2 percent were undecided."
- Democratic strategist James Carville told Fox News on Saturday that this year’s midterms are going to be a “wipeout” for the GOP and that Democrats will win at least 25 seats, per the Hill.
Figure 3: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling …”
Source: Silver Bulletin
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