US: Democrats Extend Lead On Generic Congressional Ballot - YouGov
A new survey from the Economist/YouGov has found that, “Democrats have a 7-point lead over Republicans in voting intention for Congress. That's Democrats' largest lead since the Economist / YouGov polls resumed asking this question after the 2024 election, and in part reflects Republicans being more likely than Democrats to say they won't vote or aren't sure how they'd vote.”
- The report notes, “Democrats' 7-point lead in preference for Congress is their largest in any Economist / YouGov polls this election cycle. It's also a bigger Democratic edge in U.S. Congress vote preferences than at this point in the 2024 election (Democrats up by 2 points) or the 2022 election (Democrats up by 6 points)”
- Separately, Morning Consult reports, "Voters are now 12 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump's job performance — his worst mark since returning to office, while his personal favorability rating has also reached a record low." MC notes that Independents are "moving in the wrong direction" for Trump.
- A new Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that approval of Trump's immigration policies "fell to the lowest level since his return to the White House, amid signs he is losing support among American men on the issue."
Figure 1: How registered voters plan to vote for Congress in 2026
Source: YouGov
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GLOBAL: Trump May Have Been Misinformed on European Troops - Sky News
Sky News have reported that "Donald Trump conceded to Keir Starmer in their Sunday phone call that he may have been misinformed about the motivation for deploying European troops to Greenland. The apparent concession by the American president might provide an avenue to de-escalate the tension over Greenland."
Headed into Davos, latest from European leaders and their clear diplomatic appeals to Trump:
- Italy's Meloni: doesn't agree with Trump's tariff announcement and the move was a "mistake". Meloni revealed she spoke with Trump a few hours ago and told him what she thinks of the matter. She did not reveal Trump's reaction to her words.
- Danish foreign minister Rasmussen: "We have red lines that can't be crossed," [...] parties involved should "move this dialogue from Truth Social into a meeting room".
- Hungarian foreign minister: The future of Greenland is not an issue for the European Union, Hungary has said, signalling that it will not support a joint EU statement against Donald Trump.
GBPUSD TECHS: Has Traded Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3726 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3661 High Sep 18
- RES 2: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3495/3568 High Jan 13 / 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3430 @ 17:35 GMT Jan 19
- SUP 1: 1.3331 Low Jan 19
- SUP 2: 1.3312 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.3289 50.0% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3223 61.8% retracement of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 bull leg
Recent weakness in GBPUSD has resulted in price moving through support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3387. The break strengthens the current short-term bear cycle - a correction. This signals scope for an extension towards 1.3312, the Dec 17 low. Initial key resistance has been defined at 1.3495, the Jan 13 high. A stronger recovery and a move above this short-term hurdle would highlight a potential reversal.
US: Trump Approval Dips On Economy But Support w/Core Resilient - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports on a new survey: “It’s President Trump’s economy now, and voters are increasingly unhappy with how he’s handling it,” but “support for Trump among his most loyal supporters remains remarkably resilient, limiting damage to his political standing from the sour views of his economic management.”
- The Journal notes: “By 15 percentage points, more voters rate the economy as weak rather than strong, a deterioration from July, when negative views predominated by 4 points. About half of voters say the economy has gotten worse in the past year, compared with 35% who see improvement. That finding continues a yearslong disconnect between traditional measures of inflation and economic growth, which are relatively positive, and a negative public outlook.”
- Silver Bulletin noted yesterday that Trump's approval has increased slightly on the economy, but dipped on immigration: "Approval of Trump’s handling of immigration also hit a second term low of net -10.0 in our average yesterday. But his approval on the economy has actually risen somewhat to net -16.5 — it was around -20 at the start of the year. Previously, when pollsters measured Trump’s overall job approval and his rating on the economy, the former was meaningfully higher than the latter. But the two have been much closer in this week’s releases."
Figure 1: Net View of President Trump’s Handling of:
Source: Wall Street Journal
