US NATGAS: Delfin Midstream Awards Samsung Heavy Industries EPCI Contract

• RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17 
• PRICE: 1.3520 @ 20:48 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.3458 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
• SUP 2: 1.3453 Low Sep 22
• SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3282 Low Aug 6      

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest move down from the Sep 17 high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3449, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.

BOC Gov Macklem's speech Tuesday (link) titled "Global trade, capital flows and Canada’s prosperity" focuses on structural issues facing the Canadian (and to an extent, the US) economy. With little new on current monetary policy, implied BOC rates are little changed upon speech release (still 22bp of cuts priced through year-end), with USDCAD remaining around session highs (at 1.3845, next resistance to watch is Sep 11 high of 1.3890).

• The speech opens with the line "Canada is a trading nation" - but goes on to outline "four megatrends in global trade and capital flows that are transforming the global economic and financial landscape: Global trade growth has slowed. The United States is no longer the dominant trading nation, but it still dominates global financial flows. And global trade imbalances are widening again. President Trump did not precipitate these megatrends, but his policies will likely reduce trade with the United States further and could dent the US dollar as the global safe asset."
• In this new landscape, he says re BOC policy: "Tariffs have weakened our exports and GDP growth, slowed the job market and added costs. Monetary policy cannot undo the damage caused by tariffs, but it has a role to play supporting the economy through this period of adjustment while maintaining price stability. Last week, the Bank lowered its policy interest rate to better balance the risks we face as the economy adjusts to a new trade relationship with the United States. We are proceeding carefully with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties. And as we demonstrated last week, we are prepared to respond to new information. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled."
• He repeats commentary about short-term impacts of the US-Canada trade conflict "The tariff shock is hurting economic growth and employment". And he repeats the BOC's longer-run assessment from this year's Monetary Policy Reports that "In the longer term, increased trade friction with the United States means our economy will work less efficiently, with added costs and less income."
• "Canada has a choice. We can live with the structural impact of a more protectionist United States—the lower path. Or we can improve our productivity and competitiveness...Canadians have embraced the power of economic patriotism—elbows up. But now we need to roll up our sleeves and do the hard work to be more competitive."
• On the USD, he says "President Trump’s “Liberation Day” shook global confidence, and the dollar’s safe-haven role was called into question. Stock markets have since recovered, but the dollar has depreciated by about 10% against other major currencies since the start of the year, and the price of gold is up over 40%. It’s too early to know if this is the start of a new era. For now, the greenback remains dominant, and—without a clear alternative—I suspect it will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future. But for many, its value as a hedge in times of stress has been dented. And President Trump’s attempts to influence the Federal Reserve are raising questions about the continued independence of US monetary policy."

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and key short-term resistance 
• PRICE: 1.1814 @ 19:35 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 1.1726/1672 Low Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSDis unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared, reinforcing a bull cycle. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 1.1672. the 50-day EMA.