US FISCAL: Deficit Tracking Narrower Than Last Year, Largely Due To Tariffs

• Crude markets have displayed additional volatility during US hours after US Energy Secretary Wright posted a video on X to say that the US had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. This was then deleted before the White House confirmed that no such escort had taken place.
• WTI APR 26 is currently down by 11% at $84.3/bbl.
• The market remains sharply lower on the day after President Trump suggested that the US military was ahead of schedule and that the war in Iran could soon be over. Axios reported that the US asked Israel to halt strikes on Iran’s energy.
• However, crude spiked again late in the day after a Reuters headline said that Iran might mine the Strait of Hormuz.
• From a technical perspective, a volatile impulsive bull wave in WTI futures remains intact. The sharp pullback from Monday’s high is not a surprise, given that the uptrend was in an extreme overbought position.
• The move down is allowing this overbought condition to unwind. A key support zone to monitor is $72.61 - $66.39, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break through this area would signal a possible trend reversal.
• Elsewhere, precious metals have rebounded, as the plunge in crude has weighed on the US dollar. Spot gold is up by 1.1% at $5,197/oz, while silver has risen by 1.5% to $88.3/oz.
• For gold, a short-term bullish theme remains intact, with the March 2 high at $5,419.1/oz the next resistance to monitor. 

A new Reuters survey has found that, “Most Americans think gasoline prices are ​going to rise in coming months following President Donald Trump's decision to launch military strikes on Iran, and ‌many expect a protracted conflict.”

• According to the report, “Some 67% of respondents in the four-day poll - including 44% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats - said they expect gas prices in the U.S. to get worse over the next year. ​Sixty percent of Americans expect U.S. military involvement in Iran will "go on for an extended period of ​time," according to the poll.”
• Reuters notes, “The latest poll underscores the political risks Trump brings to his Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections when Democrats hope to seize control from Trump's party ​of at least one chamber of Congress. Some 64% of poll respondents - including one in four Republicans and nine ​in 10 Democrats - said Trump has not clearly explained the goals of U.S. military involvement.”
• The report continues, “Forty-nine percent of Americans - including a third of Republicans and two-thirds ⁠of Democrats - ​think the war in Iran will have a mostly negative impact on ​their personal finances. About one in three Republicans said they were not sure how the war would affect their finances.”

Figure 1: What Americans Think of Trump’s Attack on Iran 

Source: Reuters 

• RES 4: 0.8818 High Nov 26 ‘25
• RES 3: 0.8806 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8739/89 High Mar 3 / High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.8703 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8654 @ 16:22 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 0.8642 Low Feb 5 & Mar 10 
• SUP 2: 0.8613 Low Feb 04 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact. The reversal lower from the Feb 27 high has resulted in a breach of support at the 50-day EMA. The break highlights a stronger reversal, and the continuation lower exposes 0.8613, the Feb low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8789, the Feb 27 high, where a break would resume the recent bull leg. The first important resistance is the 50-day EMA at 0.8703.