NBP: Dark Clouds Hang Over NBP Governor As Specific Accusations Take Shape

Feb-19 10:03

Newsweek Polska runs a source report offering some more details on the possible charges against NBP Governor Adam Glapinski amid reports suggesting that a political decision has been made to launch an investigation into his conduct.

  • The piece suggests that the ruling coalition wants to accuse Glapinski of misleading the government by declaring in August 2023 that the central bank would record a PLN6bn financial gain for FY2023 that would be transferred to the stage budget. An anonymous NBP official told Newsweek that this was at odds with internal forecasts from June 2023, which showed a projected PLN10.5bn loss.
  • Speaking on record, MPC's Joanna Tyrowicz and Przemyslaw Litwiniuk pointed to other alleged procedural breaches on Glapinski's part. Tyrowicz mentioned issues such as (i.a.) the unilateral editing of minutes and protocols, arbitrary restrictions on the access to information, and misleading MPC members in crucial discussions.
  • However, Litwiniuk said that putting Glapinski before the Tribunal of State, which is by its nature a politicised institution, would contravene the internationally recognised judicial standards. In his view, the prosecutors and ordinary courts should investigate charges of criminal nature.
  • The NBP Act stipulates that a binding court sentence is a basis for terminating the Governor's tenure, alongside a long-term illness and a relevant verdict of the Tribunal of State. Should Glapinski be ousted, First Deputy Governor Marta Kightley would take over as the central bank's chief.
  • The ruling coalition has a political incentive to put Glapinski on trial, having accused him of stoking inflation, showing overt political bias and financing public spending via QE operations. It now seems that the sentiment has shifted towards pressing charges, despite the potential market reaction to Glapinski's suspension or ouster.

Historical bullets

MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B

Jan-19 21:00



  • MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
  • US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$126.1B

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

Jan-19 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
  • RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
  • RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
  • RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
  • PRICE: 1.3465 @ 16:22 GMT Jan 19
  • SUP 1: 1.3407/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
  • SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
  • SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
  • SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3459. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started Dec 27 last year and has opened 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.3608, the Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low. Initial support is at 1.3407, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

Jan-19 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
  • RES 1: 0.6639 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6584 @ 16:20 GMT Jan 19
  • SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
  • SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
  • SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
  • SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s bearish price action. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6639, the 50-day EMA.