DALY: GOAL IS TO RESTORE PRICE STABILITY AS GENTLY AS WE CAN

• RES 3: 149.53 - High Mar 22 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 2: 148.74 - High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 145.13 @ 15:40 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 144.60 - Low Dec 08 and 11 (cont)
• SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont)
• SUP 3: 143.29 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 22 - Apr 18 - May 12 swing

Recent weakness in JGBs resulted in a low print of 144.90 on Friday. A stronger reversal higher is required to signal the end of the recent corrective phase. The bull trigger has been defined at 147.74, the mid-January high. A break would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. For bears, a resumption of weakness would potentially open the 144.60 support.

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3532 @ 16:18 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bearish, however, a continuation of the latest recovery would undermine this theme and expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3606, the Feb 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since December 27. For bears, a move below 1.3420, the Mar 8 low, would resume bearish activity and open 1.3359, the Jan 31 low.

• RES 4: 0.6748 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6567 @ 16:16 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 0.6552 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

The latest pullback in AUDUSD appears to be a correction. The pair has pierced support around the 50-day EMA - at 0.6572. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the next key support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the bull cycle and open 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement.