SOUTH AFRICA: DA Fires Warning Shot Over Education Minister
- Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen warned that the potential ouster of Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube would herald the end of the government of national unity (GNU). He spoke after the Sunday Times reported that President Cyril Ramaphosa was under pressure from within his African National Congress (ANC) to fire Gwarube amid tensions over the Basic Education Laws Amendment (BELA) Act. Ramaphosa signed the BELA Act into law but withheld a couple of contentious clauses to allow some time for consultations within the framework of the GNU's "clearing house mechanism" designed to iron out differences between coalition partners. Separately, EWN reported that some unnamed ANC officials said that "it would be foolish to fire Gwarube, dismissing the talks as part of the succession battles currently brewing in some quarters of the party."
- The elective conference of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) is the main scheduled event on the local political calendar this week, with parliament in recess. The party has had a difficult year, losing its status as the third-largest party in the National Assembly and facing a flurry of defections of senior officials to the rival opposition uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party. Julius Malema is expected to be re-elected as party leader but the EFF needs to replenish other senior cadres after recent defections.
- The ANC's National Working Committee (NWC) will today meet with the Provincial Executive Committee (PEC) of Gauteng as the party's national headquarters continue to debate the possible dissolution of provincial structures in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Reverses
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 08
- SUP 1: 143.39 - Low Nov 07
- SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
Prices fell further Thursday, extending the recent pullback. The return lower at the start of this week has culminated in a break of 143.57, marking both the Jul 17 high on the continuation contract as well as the Oct 22 low. For now, the 50-dma tops out at 144.32, and marks first resistance. A continuation higher would open 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont) and a bull trigger.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 2Y/10Y Ultra-Bond Flattener
- Flattener crossed late Friday at 1645:30ET, DV01 $322,000
- -8,900 TUZ4 102-23.88, sell through 102-24.38 post time bid vs.
- +3,700 UXYZ4 113-16, post time offer
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3910 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.
