CZK: Koruna Holds Tight Range After Release Of Mixed Data
EUR/CZK holds a familiar range, last dealing +0.008 at 25.309. A break above Aug 1 high of 25.535 is needed to confirm that bullish momentum is intact. However, the slope of the underlying uptrend seems to have moderated after mid-April, with the rate locked in a clear corridor since then. A dip through 25.246, the floor of that corridor, and Jul 19/22 lows coinciding at 25.208, would suggest that a short-term bearish reversal might be starting to unfold.
- The koruna has been unfazed by the release of the latest round of local data, with a positive surprise in trade balance counterbalanced by disappointing industrial production and construction output. Komercni banka wrote that trade balance may weaken in 2H2024 but overall current account balance should end in a surplus this year, which could facilitate a gradual appreciation of the koruna.
- CZGB curve runs slightly steeper, with the segment 5-year out coming under pressure, while the short end outperforms (yields on the 2-3 segment are 0.4bp lower).
- The 200-DMA limited losses for the PX Index yesterday, with the equity benchmark staging a dynamic rebound off there, adding 2.3% today.
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US: First Look At Biden's ABC Interview Expected Shortly
18:30 ET 23:30 BST: ABC's "World News Tonight with David Muir" is expected to broadcast shorty the first clips from today's interview with US President Joe Biden, conducted by George Stephanopoulos. Detail can be found on the ABC website here.
- ABC notes: "A first look will air on the Friday, July 5, edition of "World News Tonight with David Muir" and the interview will air in its entirety as a primetime special Friday, July 5 at 8/7c on ABC News. The interview and additional analysis will air again Sunday, July 7 on "This Week.""
- The stakes are exceptionally high for Biden with pressure to intensify on the President to step aside if he fails to deliver an assured performance. MNI's Political Risk team examines the challenging political environment for Biden as he seeks to resurrect his re-election bid following a shaky first debate performance. MNI US Elections Weekly
USDCAD TECHS: Maintains This Week’s Bear Cycle
- RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
- RES 1: 1.3675 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3632 @ 16:23 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD rallied into the Friday close, however the short-term bearish threat remains in place as resistance stayed untroubled across the week. Note that price has breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3675. This reinforces bearish conditions and has also resulted in a print below 1.3590, May 16 low. An extension would expose 1.3590, the May 16 low and key support. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Breakout
- RES 4: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 0.6752 High Jul 05
- RES 1: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- PRICE: 0.6742 @ 16:22 BST Jul 05
- SUP 1: 0.6660 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6630 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8
A bull mode in AUDUSD remains intact. A strong rally this week resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement, was tested - but prices faded off the mark into the European close. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6626, the 50-day EMA.
