EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CZECHIA: CNB Expected To Leave Rates On Hold
(CZGB;Aaa/AA/AA-)
• The Czech National Bank (CNB) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after a couple of policymakers suggested that the easing cycle might already be over. The decision will be announced at 13:30BST/13:30CEST and followed by a press conference at 14:00BST/15:00CEST. It will be accompanied by the latest version of the central bank's quarterly forecast, which may shed more light on the monetary policy outlook. For more details, see our preview of the decision: https://mni.marketnews.com/41pZXD8
• Ex-auto retail sales grew by 4.5% Y/Y in June, missing the consensus forecast of +4.9%. The CZSO said that 'the highest growth was recorded as for sellers of automotive fuel who together with online sellers contributed the most to the increase of retail sales.'
• The data on international reserves will cross the wires at 09:00BST/10:00CEST.
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AUSTRALIA: Albanese To Visit China 12-18 July
(MNI) London - Australian PM Anthony Albanese will visit China from 12-18 July. Earlier, the PM's office released a statement confirming Albanese would "hold the Australia–China Annual Leaders' Meeting with Premier Li in Beijing. The Prime Minister will also meet President Xi Jinping and Chairman Zhao Leji of the National People’s Congress." During the visit, Albanese and Chinese leaders will attend the Australia–China CEO Roundtable, while Albanese will also visit Shanghai and Chengdu.
- This visit will be Albanese's second to China since taking office, reversing the trend of his conservative Liberal party predecessors, who eschewed closer relations with Beijing.
- Albanese: "China remains Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for almost one third of our total trade, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Trade is now flowing freely, to the benefit of both countries and to people and businesses on both sides. We will continue to patiently and deliberately work towards a stable relationship with China, with dialogue at its core. I will raise issues that are important to Australians and the region including my Government’s enduring commitment to pursuing Australia’s national interest. My Government will continue to cooperate with China where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in our national interest."
- The Chinese Foreign Ministry says China "hopes through this visit [the two sides] will strengthen communication, [and] expand practical cooperation."
- Reuters reports "Albanese's trip comes as China,[...] suggested a review of the 10-year-old free trade agreement between the two countries to boost ties in agriculture and mining, and explore growth areas in new technologies."
CROSS ASSET: The Dollar extends some losses
- Some downside continuation for the Dollar, printing an intraday low against the EUR, GBP, NOK, CZK, ZAR, MYR, CNH, and SEK.
- Despite The German Bond Futures leading Treasuries lower, and in turn a move higher in Yields, the Dollar struggles given the little progress made in Trade.
- Not seeing any impact on the Yen as of yet, but could be due for test back towards146.00.
BUND TECHS: (U5) Pierces Key Short-Term Support
- RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 130.76/131.33 High Jul 4 / High Jun 20
- RES 1: 130.51 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 129.77@ 08:11 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 129.77/73 Low Jul 3 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 129.67 76.4% retracement of the May 14 - Jun 13 bull leg
- SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22
- SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger
Bund futures are trading lower today, extending Monday’s sell-off. Attention is on support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low. It has been pierced, a clear breach of this support would confirm a resumption of the recent bearish theme and open 129.30, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.51, has been pierced but for now, remains intact. A clear break of it would instead highlight a possible reversal.
