CZECHIA: Czech Banking Association To Present Macroeconomic Forecast
Feb-20 08:33
- The board of the Czech National Bank (CNB) will hold its regular weekly meeting today, with no monetary policy or financial stability decisions expected. Governor Ales Michl continues to push for exploring the possibility of investing part of the central bank's international reserves in bitcoin. He revisited this idea in a lengthy post on X yesterday, reiterating that the Bank Board approved his motion to conduct an analysis of the options for investing in additional asset classes.
- There is a growing chance that Defence Minister Jana Cernochova (ODS) will take over the top spot on the Spolu coalition's electoral list in Prague after Chamber of Deputies Speaker Marketa Pekarova Adamova announced that she would not seek re-election due to health reasons. In exchange, TOP 09 will get the front-runner spot on a different regional list, most likely in Usti nad Labem. This may translate into the party's electoral result and relative position within the three-party coalition, given that the capital was previously its key stronghold.
- President Petr Pavel criticised US President Donald Trump's "cynical" labelling of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky as a "dictator" and reminded that Ukraine is resisting aggression from a neighbouring nuclear power. Pavel said that the best security guarantee for Ukraine would be ensuring that it has a "capable, well-equipped army" and that the prospect of NATO membership remains on the table. Meanwhile, he expressed scepticism over the proposal to deploy international peacekeeping forces to Ukraine and said it remains only a "hypothetical possibility".
- The Czech Banking Association will present its quarterly economic outlook at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. The media briefing will be attended by CBA Chief Economist Jaromir Sindel, Patria Finance Chief Economist Jan Bures and Unicredit Bank Chief Economist Pavel Sobisek.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GILTS: Off Early Highs, Syndication Eyed
Jan-21 08:28
The early uptick in gilts fades, as participants assess the mixed labour market data (soft quantity readings vs. firmer-than-expected private wages) and the latest developments in the U.S. tariff playbook.
- Futures peaked at 91.79 before fading back to ~91.60.
- Initial resistance at the January 17 high (91.96) untested.
- That leaves the bearish technical trend intact in the contract, initial support at the January 16 low (90.68).
- Yields flat to 1bp lower.
- Spread to Bunds 1bp wider at 214bp.
- The DMO has released the minutes of yesterday's consultations with gilt market participants, details available in a previous bullet.
- BoE-dated OIS showing ~63bp of cuts through year-end, matching pre-gilt open levels, 1bp more dovish on the day.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.0, back from early highs.
- On the lookout for the syndicated tap of the 4.375% Jan-40 gilt. Bookrunners have indicated this will likely be today’s business, in line with our own expectation.
RIKSBANK: Thedeen Pushes Back On Mortgage Policy Proposals
Jan-21 08:23
Riksbank Governor Thedeen pushed back on the proposal for more relaxed macroprudential policies in the housing market, stating that “just making it easier to borrow will not solve long-term housing market challenges”.
- The Inquiry, which was presented in November 2024, proposed a relaxation of amortisation requirements for households, an increase in the mortgage cap to 90% (from 85% currently) and a new debt-to-income cap of 550%.
- Thedeen believes “households are more resilient with amortisation requirements and mortgage caps than they would have been without them, and relaxing credit rules too much risks reversing this trend”.
- He notes that “there is a risk that the Inquiry's proposals could push up housing prices, increase household debt and make households more vulnerable to shocks.”
- Pushback against the Inquiry’s proposals was also seen in the Riksbank’s H2 ‘24 Financial Stability Report, and a recent speech by Deputy Governor Bunge.
- The Riksbank will provide a full assessment of the matter after the Government submits a proposal for consultation regarding the Inquiry’s proposals (expected in the Spring).
SILVER TECHS: Scope For Gains Near-Term
Jan-21 08:20
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.974 - HIgh Jan 16
- PRICE: $30.490 @ 08:19 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. However, the metal traded higher last week suggesting scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.
