RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast

• RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing     
• RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high   
• RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24      
• PRICE: $2758.7 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: $2708.1/2675.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Gold is trading closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the recent breach of resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2675.2, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.75 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 119.02 @ Close Jan 29 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

Recent gains in BTP futures highlight a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.75, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from the Jan 22 high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.

• The German Bund traded in a super tight 9 ticks range overnight, Data release fully picks up as of Tomorrow, so plenty to take in still.
• Early questions are on the spike higher in Equities, this is led by the ASML earnings that saw a beat in early trade, so focus will be on the cash open in under an hour, we could be set for record highs!
• For the German Bund, the contract has seen a tiny upside gap during the Overnight open, this is closed, support remains at the 131.33 gap which held Yesterday.
• The 20 day EMA is down to 132.04, but better resistances are still eyed at 132.22 and 132.57.
• Today sees the Spanish prelim GDP and the US prelim Wholesales, but the Data calendar is packed on Thursday/Friday.
• The main focus is on the Expected unchanged FOMC rate later today.
• SUPPLY: UK £3bn 2033 (equates to 19.4k Gilt) could weigh given the much lower liquidity in early trade. German €4.5bn Bund (Equates to 37k Bund) again could weigh on the lower early traded Volumes.
• SPEAKERS: BoE Bailey, Nathanaël Benjamin, Liz Oakes and Colette Bowe at the Treasury committee, Fed Powell's presser.