US TSYS: Curves Bear Steepen, Trump Yet to Annc Fed Chair Choice
- Treasuries reversed early gains, look to finish near session lows Monday, trading sideways since late morning amid decent rate lock hedging/speculative selling ahead $17.75B corporate bond issuance, largely tied to Merck's $8B 8pt debt issuance.
- Currently, TYH6 -17 at 112-26 vs. 112-25.5 low, the retreat resulted in a breach of both the 20-day EMA, but more importantly the 50-day EMA at 112-27. A clear breach of this average would undermine a recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher is required to refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 113-29+, the Oct 17 high.
- Curves bear steepen after: Trump has decided who will replace Chairman Powell (but not who or when; Hassett happy to fill chair). As such - projected rate cut pricing rises vs. late Friday (*): Dec'25 at -24.7bp (-20.7bp), Jan'26 at -30.6bp (-28.4bp), Mar'26 at -37.8bp (-36.1bp), Apr'26 at -44.1bp (-43.4bp).
- Treasuries bounced midmorning after dip in ISM Mfg, New Orders and Employ data, Prices Paid higher than expected: ISM manufacturing index improved marginally to 49.0 in November having dipped 0.4pts to 48.7 in Oct.
- The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.2 in the final November report vs 51.9 in the flash, although it still dips from 52.5 in October. The press release (link) notes some mixed findings with a “solid rise in production” but also a “considerable slowdown” in demand growth.
- Dented risk sentiment only remains seen through the lens of the crypto markets Monday, as the bounce back for equity indices across the US session sees both the e-mini S&P and Nasdaq futures rise back into positive territory.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
- RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
- PRICE: 95.670 @ 16:16 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as last week. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Struck by Strong CPI
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.375 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Having bounced well on the back of the mild US CPI print, Aussie 3-yr futures reversed course Wednesday on strong domestic inflation data containing RBA cut pricing through 2026. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 96.280 as the next major support.
FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
Gov Waller, one of the FOMC's more prominent doves, makes clear in an appearance on Fox Business that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. He makes reference to Chair Powell's press conference comment that the Fed could skip a cut at the December meeting due in part to a lack of official government data during the federal shutdown (Powell: “what do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down").
- Waller says today: "Right now, we know that the labor market has been weak... We know inflation is going to come back down. Inflation expectations are anchored, and in that world, the standard of central bank wisdom is to look through it and proceed with worrying about the labor market. So in my view, we should just look at what the data is telling us and proceed on policy that way.... So this is why I'm still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that's what all the data is telling me to do. The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and ... the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."
- This is of particular interest since he appeared to suggest he would have a more cautious outlook on further easing after cutting in October.
