FREIGHT: Crude Tanker Veers Toward Iranian Waters: Ambrey
A Marshall-Islands-flagged oil tanker off the UAE was seen making a sharp turn towards Iranian waters in a “highly targeted” incident, according to Maritime Security firm Ambrey.
- The tanker was transiting the Gulf of Oman, 22 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, UAE when it made a sudden course deviation.
- The vessel was not identified.
- The tanker — en route from Amjan, UAE, to Singapore — had previously been approached by three small boats while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg said.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
COMMODITIES: Gold Pierces $4200 Round Number Resistance
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Tuesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The move down last week resulted in a break of support at $60.40, the Oct 2 low. This highlights an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the move down opens $57.50 next, the May 30 low. On the upside, key resistance is at $66.42, the Sep 26 high. First resistance is at $62.47, the 50-day EMA. A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4200.00 handle, and $4239.7, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support lies at $3889.3, 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.09 or -0.15% at $58.61
- Natural Gas down $0.01 or -0.46% at $3.014
- Gold spot up $65.72 or +1.59% at $4211.15
- Copper up $1.6 or +0.32% at $504.15
- Silver up $1.58 or +3.07% at $53.0244
- Platinum up $24.18 or +1.48% at $1659.3
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remain Above Key Support Zone
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, the direction is up and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. A key support zone between 5553.01 - 5481.41, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs, remains intact. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger is 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis last Friday appears corrective - for now. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6605.62, and the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 825.35 pts or +1.76% at 47672.67 and the TOPIX ended 49.65 pts higher or +1.58% at 3183.64.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 46.98 pts or +1.22% at 3912.209 and the HANG SENG ended 469.25 pts higher or +1.84% at 25910.6.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 42.58 pts or +0.18% at 24276.34, FTSE 100 lower by 30.15 pts or -0.32% at 9422.39, CAC 40 up 195.92 pts or +2.47% at 8115.54 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 76.23 pts or +1.37% at 5628.28.
- Dow Jones mini up 126 pts or +0.27% at 46626, S&P 500 mini up 29 pts or +0.43% at 6715.5, NASDAQ mini up 155.75 pts or +0.63% at 24918.25.
JAPAN: DPFP Chief-LDP's Takaichi Proposed Coalition, More Talks 20 Oct
Japanese politics remains in a state of uncertainty, with opposition parties holding the balance of power on whether to back the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s new president, Sanae Takaichi, to succeed Shigeru Ishiba, or to pursue a three-party alliance to nominate an opposition figure. Takaichi has held in-person meetings with all three main party leaders today, with the opposition leaders also holding their own talks.
- Conservative populist Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Yuichiro Tamaki says that there is "still some distance" between his party and the main opposition liberal Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). Says he suggested another party leaders' meeting on Monday, 20 Oct, a day before the scheduled election of a new PM.
- Tamaki says that "on basic policies, there is a lot of overlap between us and the LDP". Says Takaichi is looking for an LDP-DPFP coalition, but that the LDP must "first build a relationship of trust..."
- CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda said, "If the opposition works together, we have a chance to take power", adding, "the chances of a three-party agreement are not zero".
- Libertarian-federalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) co-leader Fumitake Fujita was circusmspect, saying that he did not make any major proposals in today's meetings, and that there was "no specific discussion on naming a PM candidate".
- Political betting markets have shifted back in Takaichi's favour. Data from Polymarket shows bettors assigning a 91% implied probability she becomes PM, up from a low of 63.8% on 10 Oct. Tamaki's apparent coolness towards an opposition alliance and talking up similarities with the LDP looks to have seen Takaichi's prospects recover.
Chart 1. Political Betting Market, Implied Probability of Next Japanese PM, %
Source: Polymarket
