COMMODITIES: Crude Rises, Gold Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- Crude is higher on the day but remains within the weekly range and well down from Feb levels. Traders remain bearish, driven by concerns around global demand, centred around the US and China, coupled with rising OPEC+ output from April.
- WTI Apr 25 is up by 2.1% at $67.7/bbl.
- OPEC has kept its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast stable at 1.45m b/d for 2025, according to their March Monthly Oil Market Report.
- A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact, with initial support at $65.22, the Mar 5 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.10, the 50-day EMA.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub has fallen sharply, as steady underlying fundamentals and the absence of any late season cold shots in the forecast have traders exiting bullish positions, pushing prices lower.
- US Natgas Apr 25 is down by 8.3% at $4.08/mmbtu.
- Spot gold has risen by 0.6% to $2,935/oz, bringing the yellow metal to its highest level since Feb 25.
- The trend condition in gold remains bullish, with attention of on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection.
- Elsewhere, copper has rallied by a further 1.8% to $485/lb. The red metal hit a new 10-month high around $490 earlier in the session, narrowing the gap on $500 round number resistance.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts a surge in US copper imports soon, driven by expectations of tariffs from the US administration.
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STIR: Dec'25 Midcurve SOFR Call Fly - Unwind
- -40,000 0QZ5 97.00/98.00 call spds 8.0 to 8.25 vs. 96.08/0.14% (unwind of buys from Dec 26-Jan 7 from 9.0 to 10.0 vs. 95.905 to 96.005)
EURUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 1.0435/42 50-day EMA / High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.0307 @ 19:32 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 and the bear trigger.,
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg
EURUSD continues to trade below last week’s highs. Attention is on a bullish candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0435, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 110-14 High Dec 14
- RES 1: 110-00 High Feb 7
- PRICE: 109-08 @ 19:17 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 108-20+ Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
A bull phase in Treasury futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA of 109-10+. This highlights potential for a stronger reversal and sights are on a climb above the 110-00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle.
