COMMODITIES: Crude Erases Gains Amid US/Iran Talk Progress

• Crude prices have risen on Tuesday as the market monitors geopolitical risks in Iran, a slow recovery in resumption of Kazakhstan supply, and cold weather in the US.
• WTI Mar 26 up 2.7% at $62.2/bbl.
• A severe winter storm in the US disrupted significant crude and natural gas production over the weekend, with estimates of up to 2mb/d lost.
• A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact for now and sights are on the bull trigger at $62.20, the Jan 14 high, which has been pierced.
• Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $62.41 initially, a Fibonacci retracement point.
• Initial firm support lies at $58.99, the 50-day EMA.
• Meanwhile, precious metals have bounced strongly today, as weakness in the US dollar gained traction ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
• Spot gold has risen by 1.6% to $5,089/oz, just shy of yesterday’s record high, while silver has jumped by 4.3% to $108.3/oz. The move leaves the gold/silver ratio at 47.1, the lowest since 2011.
• Both metals continue to benefit from strong underlying bull trends, which for gold puts sights on $5,167.5 next, a Fibonacci projection.
• The trend is unsurprisingly overbought, and a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial support is at $4,900.0, the Jan 23 low.
• For silver, sights are on the $118.243, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $89.63, the 20-day EMA

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• RES 4: 159.45 High Jan 14 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 157.11 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 156.16 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 155.35 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 152.76 @ 17:55 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 152.61 Low Jan 26
• SUP 2: 151.98 38.2% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 151.54 Low Oct 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 150.99 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low 

USDJPY remains in the grip of a bear cycle. The sharp pullback concludes the recent bull cycle and highlights the start of a corrective phase. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and potential is seen for a move towards 151.98, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, Initial resistance to watch is 156.16, the 50-day EMA.