OIL: Crude Edging Higher on Tighter Market Concerns

Crude is holding onto gains seen yesterday and up near the high from 4 Apr ahead of US CPI and EIA oil inventory data due for release later today.

• Brent JUN 23 up 0.2% at 85.76$/bbl
• WTI MAY 23 up 0.1% at 81.63$/bbl
• Gasoil MAY 23 up 0.7% at 773.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.04$/bbl at -4.19$/bbl
• Crude has seen support from potential signs that Russian production cuts may be starting to hit with exports below 3mbpd for the first time in eight weeks. Signs of strong fuel demand in India and ongoing supply disruption to pipeline oil flows from Iraq to Turkey are also supportive of prices.
• Uncertainty remains over global demand despite expectations that the US Fed may be getting closer to ending its rate hike cycle.
  • Brent JUN 23-JUL 23 unchanged at 0.44$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 5.74$/bbl
• Tighter supplies and a potential market deficit later this year are supporting crude time spreads. The WTI prompt spread is in backwardation for the first time since December while the crude Dec23-Dec24 spreads are a the highest since November.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are steady today with gasoline holding onto recent strength ahead of the US driving season and the decline in diesel is slowing on easing demand concerns. Uncertainty remains over Russian oil output this year, but tight European supplies are easing with the gradual return of French refineries.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 38.27$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 30.46$/bbl