EU CREDIT UPDATE: CREDIT UPDATE: iTraxx/Cash Moves

The Riichmond Fed Manufacturing Survey composite manufacturing index rose to -14 in October, still indicating "slow" activity (per the survey) albeit up from -21 in September and a little stronger than the -14 expected, with shipments, new orders and employment all improving on the month.

• The Richmond Fed survey has portrayed a relatively more negative picture of US manufacturing activity lately than its regional Fed counterparts and the ISM Manufacturing survey as a whole. We have previously noted the potential drag on the index from Boeing being headquartered in Virginia, with a large order cancellation in June and workers' strike starting September 13. And it's also key to note that the region covered in the survey includes hurricane-hit areas, particularly North Carolina, which may also be playing a role in restraining improvement in October's still-negative reading.
• Regardless, the three regional Fed surveys released for the month so far (Empire, Philly, Richmond) are consistent with an October ISM Manufacturing PMI little changed from September's 47.2 - basically, in steady, slightly contractionary territory. Dallas and Kansas City are still awaited.

ECB President Lagarde, speaking with Bloomberg, has largely stuck to the script of the October press conference as expected. When asked what it would take to deliver a 50bp cut, she does not speculate: "The direction of travel: Clear. Pace: To be determined on the basis of backward- and forward-looking elements, using the three criteria's and applying judgement."

• A reminder that the ECB's "three criteria's" (to determine the pace and magnitude of easing) are (1) the "assessment of the inflation outlook", (2) "the dynamics of underlying inflation " and (3) "the strength of monetary policy transmission".
• Euribor futures are a little off intraday highs (reached after dovish comments from Bank of Portugal's Centeno), but ECB-dated OIS continue to price a ~30% implied probability of a 50bp cut in December.