THAILAND: CPI Miss Has BoT With Limited Policy Options

Mar-05 03:45
  • Thailand's February CPI YoY turned more negative than forecast as the pace of deflation increases.  
  • CPI in February declined -0.88% from -0.66% prior with officials making statements upon release suggesting the Middle East conflict will see upward pressure in March.
  • The continued deflation is attributed to government-subsidized utility prices (electricity and water) and lower energy costs.  This marks the 10th consecutive month of negative inflation.
  • This leaves the BoT with limited options now with rates at 1.00% as it awaits government policy to drive growth.  
  • BBG has reported that authorities were reviewing the CPI structure in early 2026 due to concerns that it was not accurately reflecting actual household costs
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Historical bullets

RBA: +25bps, As Expected

Feb-03 03:34

As widely expected the RBA delivered a 25bps hike. The decision was unanimous, with the board highlighting materially stronger inflation pressures in the second half of 2025. More details to follow. 

AUD: Reaction To RBA Announcement

Feb-03 03:33

The AUD went into the RBA announcement trading around 0.6965(+0.24%) and the SPI was trading around 8833.0(+1.15%).”RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET BY 25BPS TO 3.85%; EST. 3.85%, RBA STILL ASSESSES SOME REMAINING TIGHTNESS IN LABOR MARKET, RBA RAISES ASSUMED CASH RATE TO 4.2% AT END-2026 VS 3.3% BEFORE “. The AUD has moved back toward 0.7000 initially in reaction to this.

  • {AUDUSD Curncy} - 0.7000, +0.75%
  • {AUDNZD Curncy} - 1.1620, -0.32%
  • {EURAUD Curncy} - 1.6880, +0.50%
  • {AUDJPY Curncy} - 108.70, -0.50%
  • {XPA Index} - 8808, +0.90%
  • OIS 3-5bps firmer, YM -6 bps, XM -4 bps

RBA SEES FASTER GROWING DEMAND, CAPACITY PRESSURES

Feb-03 03:33
  • RBA SEES FASTER GROWING DEMAND, CAPACITY PRESSURES