TURKEY: Court Ruling Further Fractures Opposition

• Bit of risk-off following headline that Pakistan officials still awaiting confirm of Iran attending talks in Islamabad.
• Treasuries making moderate session low, TYM6 111-09 last (-12), 10Y yield taps 4.2975% (+.0465).
• Stocks pare gains, SPX emini flat around 7148.0
• Crude rising WTI June contract +$88.38/bbl.

Warsh reiterates his critique of the Fed's communications - as he's noted before, he's not a fan of forward guidance or the Dot Plot: "Part of the reason why, after making a mistake in 2021 and 22 the mistake was compounded, is the Fed gives its forward guidance. The Fed tells the whole world what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be. Well, the Fed's human, then they hold on to those forecasts longer than they should. I think if the Fed were to wait until it gets into a meeting before making a decision, that incremental deliberation can keep the central bank from compounding its errors."

• He says "It's more than okay" that Fed officials change their minds on policy, "it's essential. Economics is not physics. It's not math. Frankly, most of us that ended up in the economics business, we started like I did as a math major. It was too hard, so we ended up in economics. In economics, what we need to do is focus on the left of the decimal point, not to the right of the decimal point. We do focus on the big things. And if mistakes are made, central bankers, economic policy makers need to correct them fast. The real mistakes, the mistakes that cause inflation to be persistent undermine hard working Americans' standard of living."
• Unsurprisingly Warsh has to beat back questions from Sen Warren about his independence from the Trump administration, as well as his personal financial matters and disclosures.
• In his responses he says "I think Fed independence is critical" and that he will divest assets as necessary within 90 days of confirmation, "in fact, the large majority of those assets will be divested before I am sworn into office if confirmed" though Sen Warren objects that Warsh hasn't made full disclosure of his assets.

Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar posts on X: "The situation as it stands at 1930 [local, 10:30ET, 15:30BST, 16:30CET]:

1. Formal response from Iranian side about confirmation of delegation to attend Islamabad Peace Talks is still awaited.
2. ⁠Pakistan as the mediator is in constant touch with Iranians and pursuing the path of diplomacy and dialogue.
3. Ceasefire ends at 4:50 am [local, 19:50ET 00:50BST, 01:50CET], 22 April. Decision from Iran to attend the talks before the end of two weeks ceasefire is critical.
4. ⁠Pakistan has made sincere efforts to convince the Iranian leadership to participate in the second round of talks and these efforts continue."