INDIA: Country Wrap: Trade Deficit at Five Month High
- India is reviewing a US request to lift restrictions on ethanol imports as it negotiates a wider trade deal with Washington to avoid punitive tariffs. US negotiators want the South Asian country to allow shipments of the biofuel for blending with gasoline, according to people familiar with the matter, a change from current rules that promote domestic supply and permit overseas purchases of ethanol only for non-fuel use. (source BBG)
- India’s trade deficit widened to a five-month high in April, as the nation’s import bill rose due to a pick up in domestic demand, exceeding the growth in outbound shipments. The gap between exports and imports stood at $26.42 billion last month, trade data showed Thursday. That was higher than the $20.5 billion deficit forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. The trade deficit had widened to $21.5 billion in March. Inbound shipments rose 19.1% in April to $64.91 billion from a year earlier, while outbound shipments grew 9% to $38.49 billion, the data showed. The pick up in imports comes amid signs of consumption gaining pace following measures by the government and the central bank to boost demand. (source BBG)
- The NIFTY 50 fell today by a modest -0.25% but has delivered a very strong week with gains over 4%
- The rupee is down modestly today and one of the worst regional performers for the week, down -0.30% at 85.63.
- Bonds are modestly lower in yield today and down strongly over the week following RBI purchases. The IGB 10YR is -10bps for the week at 6.26%
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BOBL TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.470 High Apr 11
- PRICE: 119.260 @ 05:58 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: 118.407/117.680 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 / 1
- SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: 117.126 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
Bobl futures are unchanged and continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down appears corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract has been in overbought territory, a move down has allowed this to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3370.9 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 2: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- PRICE: $3288.2 @ 06:11 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: $3167.9/3092.1 - High Apr 3 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2991.0/2956.7 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and today’s extension reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3092.1, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection.
ASIA STOCKS: Up Beat China Data Fails to Lift Stocks
Economic data from China today was better than expected, with first quarter GDP ahead of expectations. Yet this was not enough to give stocks a boost, with most bourses following China’s lead lower.
Suppliers to Nvidia Corp. saw share price declines in Asia after the chipmaker said the US government will begin requiring a license to export its H20 chips to China, an escalation of restrictions.
- Led by the Hang Seng’s decline of -2.53%, onshore bourses were down with CSI 300 -0.93%, Shanghai -0.92% and Shenzhen -2.25% respectively.
- Taiwan’s TAIEX had a very weak day, falling -1.75%.
- The KOSPI couldn’t follow up on two strong days, falling -0.65%.
- In Singapore, the FTSE Straits Times bucked the regional trend to rise +0.28% today whilst the PSEi in the Philippines fell -0.78%.
- Malaysia’s FTSE Malay KLCI was down -0.67% after two successful days of gains.
- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite did very little today, hovering around where it started.
- India’s NIFTY 50 is up only modestly in morning trading, rising by +0.15% after yesterday’s very strong rise of +2.19%
